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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
DET

DET

86-74

3
4
BOS

BOS

88-72

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
37,052 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

DET 3 · BOS 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0003000003
BOS0001001114

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 99
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 98
    301
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 98
    302
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    232
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    64
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 95
    61
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 26·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Detroit Tigers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Justyn-Henry Malloy

Justyn-Henry Malloy

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Masataka Yoshida

Masataka Yoshida

DH

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET86-74
3
4
BOS88-72
DET86-74·BOS88-72
DET

DET

86-74

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
1-22012011
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-55010001
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000013
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-44020011
SPRINT26.123
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
0-33100010
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-44120001
SPRINT27.765
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
1-44110003
SPRINT28.381
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
2-44021001
SPRINT27.251
K. CarpenterK. CarpenterRF
0-11000000
J. MalloyJ. MalloyRF
1-11010000
Team10-363631030412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
6.1622080
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.2211010
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
0.1211000
Team8.11044090
BOS

BOS

88-72

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000002
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT25.818
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
3-44131000
SPRINT26.123
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-44110001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-44021000
SPRINT28.790
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-22011001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-33000001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-33010001
Team10-32324104009
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HarrisonK. Harrison★SP
3.0733360
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
0.2000100
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0100010
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.1000000
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0100000
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0000030
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0100020
Team9.010334120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • C. Mize
    80 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      31%·94.9 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·88.1 mph·43% whiff
    • SV
      8%·83.2 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      55%·87.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      45%·97.1 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • CH
      100%·87.5 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • K. Harrison
    65 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      54%·93.1 mph·16% whiff
    • SV
      31%·80.6 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • G. Weissert
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      32%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      23%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      47%·99.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      26%·101.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·88.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      11%·91.1 mph·100% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      41%·96.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      29%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·97.0 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    16 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      38%·86.2 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      31%·84.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      31%·95.1 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Slaten
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      45%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      27%·93.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      18%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • S. Matz
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      45%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·80.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Sep 26DETDET3@BOSBOS4today
Sep 27DETDET2@BOSBOS1
Sep 28DETDET3@BOSBOS4

Season series

DET leads series 3-1

May 12BOSBOS2@DETDET14
May 13BOSBOS9@DETDET10
May 14BOSBOS5@DETDET6
Sep 26DETDET3@BOSBOS4today
Sep 27DETDET2@BOSBOS1
Sep 28DETDET3@BOSBOS4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 34pp · Bottom 9th Inning

DETDET
J. Malloy

J. Malloy

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H

BOSBOS
M. Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

K. Harrison

K. Harrison

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat DET 4-3. Rafaela's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Win probability

BOS vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 8th Inning · 3-3
+26pp→ 72% WP

Duran · singled to left, Eaton scored.

BOSTop 9th Inning · 3-3
+22pp→ 56% WP

Pérez struck out swinging.

BOSBottom 9th Inning · 3-4
+34pp→ 100% WP

Rafaela · tripled to right, González scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0003000003
BOS0001001114

Period scoring

DET won 1 · BOS won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
1

Inn 4

Jones 2

Yoshida 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Lowe 1

0
1

Inn 8

Duran 1

0
1

Inn 9

Rafaela 1

DET
BOS

Play-by-play · 541 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  2. B9

    Rafaela tripled to right, González scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

    +34pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  5. B9

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 4

  6. B9

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  7. B9

    González singled to center.

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

    +4pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  10. B9

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Romy Gonzalez

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  11. B9

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  12. B9

    Yoshida grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

    −7pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  16. B9

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  17. B9

    Kahnle relieved Finnegan

    ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  18. B9

    McKinstry as designated hitter.

    DET 3·BOS 3

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    DET 3·BOS 3

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    DET 3·BOS 3

  21. T9

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  22. T9

    Torkelson struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

    +12pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  28. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  29. T9

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

  30. T9

    Pérez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 3·BOS 3

    +22pp

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

3

Runs

4

10

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

12

TB

15

0

HR

0

4

BB

0

12

K

9

24

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    62.5%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.3%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.4%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.