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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SEA
SEA

SEA

57-50

3
1
ATH

ATH

46-63

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
9,536 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 3 · ATH 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0101100003
ATH0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Athletics and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Luis Urias

Luis Urias

2B

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA57-50
3
1
ATH46-63
SEA57-50·ATH46-63
SEA

SEA

57-50

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000002
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-44021002
SPRINT25.716
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.941
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-44221100
SPRINT23.81
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.310
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-33001002
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-22010020
D. MooreD. Moore★CF
0-33000013
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
2-33120000
SPRINT28.381
Team9-31313931310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
7.0511040
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.2000100
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.1100100
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0100010
Team9.0711250
ATH

ATH

46-63

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.530
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT27.148
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
0-33000011
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.735
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44010000
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-44010000
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
0-44000002
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
1-22110000
Team7-3232171025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SearsJ. Sears★SP
4.1532361
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
0.2100000
M. KellyM. KellyRP
2.0100010
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
1.0100000
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0100030
Team9.09323101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ATH

  • M. Kelly
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      48%·96.8 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      43%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      30%·92.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SV
      20%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.0 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 6SEASEA6@ATHATH7
May 7SEASEA5@ATHATH3
May 7SEASEA6@ATHATH5
Jul 29SEASEA3@ATHATH1today
Jul 30SEASEA1@ATHATH6
Jul 31SEASEA4@ATHATH5

Season series

SEA leads series 5-3

Mar 28ATHATH2@SEASEA4
Mar 29ATHATH7@SEASEA0
Mar 30ATHATH4@SEASEA2
Mar 30ATHATH1@SEASEA2
May 6SEASEA6@ATHATH7
May 7SEASEA5@ATHATH3
May 7SEASEA6@ATHATH5
Jul 29SEASEA3@ATHATH1today
Jul 30SEASEA1@ATHATH6
Jul 31SEASEA4@ATHATH5
Aug 23ATHATH2@SEASEA3
Aug 24ATHATH2@SEASEA1
Aug 24ATHATH4@SEASEA11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 9th Inning

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H

ATHATH
L. Urias

L. Urias

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

J. Sears

J. Sears

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SEA beat ATH 3-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 74% WP

Naylor · homered to right center (405 feet).

SEATop 9th Inning · 3-1
+13pp→ 94% WP

Polanco · struck out swinging.

SEABottom 9th Inning · 3-1
+14pp→ 99% WP

Cortes · grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Andujar out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0101100003
ATH0000010001

Period scoring

SEA won 3 · ATH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Garver 1

1
0

Inn 5

Raleigh 1

0
1

Inn 6

Rooker 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SEA
ATH

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  3. B9

    Schuemann struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  7. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Max Schuemann

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  8. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  9. B9

    Cortes grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Andujar out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

    −14pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  12. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Carlos Cortes

    · ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  13. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  14. B9

    Andujar singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

    +8pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  20. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Miguel Andujar

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  21. B9

    Muñoz relieved Brash

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  24. T9

    · ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  25. T9

    Moore struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

    +0.7pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  27. T9

    Canzone stole second.

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  28. T9

    Canzone stole second.

    ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 3·ATH 1

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

3

Runs

1

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

13

TB

9

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

10

K

5

11

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

ATH vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.1± 4.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    46.9%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.1%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.4%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 7, 25sim 96
    253
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    121
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 95
    122
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    104
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 95
    171
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    121
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs