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FINAL+1LAA
CIN

CIN

67-61

1
2
LAA

LAA

61-66

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
27,083 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

CIN 1 · LAA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0010000001
LAA000100012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    121
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    123
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 95
    122
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 94
    253
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 94
    161
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    163
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Cincinnati Reds, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes

3B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

3B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
CIN67-61
1
2
LAA61-66
CIN67-61·LAA61-66
CIN

CIN

67-61

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
2-44021001
SPRINT28.992
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-44000002
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT26.530
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.354
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44000001
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
0-33000000
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
2-33120000
SPRINT26.941
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
0-33000001
Team7-3232171017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
6.0211171
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0000020
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
0.2311100
B. SuterB. SuterRP
0.1000010
Team8.05222101
LAA

LAA

61-66

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-22000000
SPRINT27.148
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44011000
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33000011
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-44111101
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-22000012
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-33000001
N. KavadasN. Kavadas★1B
0-33000003
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-33110001
SPRINT29.395
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
0-11000000
Team5-29292521210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
7.0711040
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0000120
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0000010
Team9.0711170

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Aug 19CINCIN4@LAALAA1
Aug 20CINCIN6@LAALAA4
Aug 21CINCIN1@LAALAA2today

Season series

CIN wins series 2-1

Aug 19CINCIN4@LAALAA1
Aug 20CINCIN6@LAALAA4
Aug 21CINCIN1@LAALAA2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CINCIN
K. Hayes

K. Hayes

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

LAALAA
Y. Moncada

Y. Moncada

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 7 H

How it ended

LAA beat CIN 2-1.

Win probability

LAA vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 57% WP

Marte · singled to left, Hayes scored.

LAABottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 55% WP

Moncada · homered to center (394 feet).

LAABottom 8th Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 73% WP

Teodosio · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0010000001
LAA00010001—2

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · LAA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Marte 1

0
1

Inn 4

Moncada 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Rengifo 1

0

Inn 9

CIN
LAA

Play-by-play · 487 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  2. T9

    Steer grounded out to third.

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  9. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Spencer Steer

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  10. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  11. T9

    Hays flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

    +6pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  17. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Austin Hays

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  18. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  19. T9

    Andujar struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

    +9pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  23. T9

    Luis Garcia pitches to Miguel Andujar

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  24. T9

    García relieved Detmers

    ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  25. T9

    Schanuel at first base.

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  28. B8

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

  29. B8

    Adell struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

    −5pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAA 2

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

1

Runs

2

7

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

10

TB

9

0

HR

1

1

BB

2

7

K

10

15

LOB

14

Player projections

LAA vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    47.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.7%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.0%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872