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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SD
SD

SD

64-51

3
2
ARI

ARI

54-61

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
22,692 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 3 · ARI 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000001023
ARI1100000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 20, 25sim 97
    104
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 97
    254
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 97
    252
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    121
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    123
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    121
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
SD64-51
3
2
ARI54-61
SD64-51·ARI54-61
SD

SD

64-51

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-55000000
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44010010
SPRINT2872
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000001
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000002
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44111101
SPRINT26.735
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
2-44221100
SPRINT27.148
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-33010002
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
1-33011010
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
3-44030000
SPRINT26.838
Team9-3535393226
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CortesN. Cortes★SP
4.2322331
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.1000040
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
2.0100000
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000130
Team9.04224101
ARI

ARI

54-61

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-33000010
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-33111111
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT26.838
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
0-44000002
T. LocklearT. Locklear★1B
1-33110012
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-22000011
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
1-22010000
SPRINT25.29
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-11001001
SPRINT27.867
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-33000001
AA. Del CastilloDH
0-11000001
Team4-26262421410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. DeSclafaniA. DeSclafani★RP
4.1300040
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.2000200
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
1.0111011
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
0.1100000
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
1.0322011
C. KellyC. KellySP
0.2100000
Team9.0933262

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 14SDSD1@ARIARI5
Jun 14SDSD7@ARIARI8
Jun 15SDSD8@ARIARI2
Aug 5SDSD2@ARIARI6
Aug 6SDSD10@ARIARI5
Aug 7SDSD3@ARIARI2today

Season series

Series tied 5-5

Jun 14SDSD1@ARIARI5
Jun 14SDSD7@ARIARI8
Jun 15SDSD8@ARIARI2
Jul 8ARIARI6@SDSD3
Jul 9ARIARI0@SDSD1
Jul 10ARIARI8@SDSD2
Jul 11ARIARI3@SDSD4
Aug 5SDSD2@ARIARI6
Aug 6SDSD10@ARIARI5
Aug 7SDSD3@ARIARI2today
Sep 27ARIARI4@SDSD7
Sep 28ARIARI1@SDSD5
Sep 28ARIARI4@SDSD12

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 9th Inning

SDSD
X. Bogaerts

X. Bogaerts

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. Cortes

N. Cortes

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

A. DeSclafani

A. DeSclafani

RP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

SD beat ARI 3-2. O'Hearn's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 8th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 37% WP

Fermin · reached on bunt single to third.

SDTop 9th Inning · 2-2
+33pp→ 50% WP

O'Hearn · homered to right center (391 feet).

SDTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+18pp→ 83% WP

Iglesias · singled to right, Bogaerts scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000001023
ARI1100000002

Period scoring

SD won 2 · ARI won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Carroll 1

0
1

Inn 2

Thomas 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Bogaerts 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

O'Hearn 1

SD
ARI

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 3·ARI 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  3. B9

    Del Castillo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

    −9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  7. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Adrian Del Castillo

    · ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  8. B9

    Del Castillo hit for McCann

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  9. B9

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  10. B9

    Alexander walked.

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

    +4pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  17. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Blaze Alexander

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  18. B9

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  19. B9

    Locklear struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

    −7pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  23. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Tyler Locklear

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  24. B9

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  25. B9

    Gurriel Jr. struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

    −10pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  29. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

  30. B9

    Miller relieved Morejon

    ·

    SD 3·ARI 2

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

3

Runs

2

9

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

17

TB

7

2

HR

1

2

BB

4

6

K

10

18

LOB

10

Player projections

ARI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    45.9%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.4%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.3%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872