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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3LAA
SEA

SEA

56-50

1
4
LAA

LAA

51-55

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
27,219 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

SEA 1 · LAA 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000001001
LAA000040004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 100
    122
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 96
    124
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 96
    253
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 96
    195
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    123
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 95
    104
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesLAA win series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Seattle Mariners, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA56-50
1
4
LAA51-55
SEA56-50·LAA51-55
SEA

SEA

56-50

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT28.688
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44111100
SPRINT25.716
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33000000
SPRINT26.941
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-22000010
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-22000001
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-22000010
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000000
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000001
Team2-2929121127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
5.0344371
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
2.0000020
J. KowarJ. KowarRP
1.0100100
Team8.0444491
LAA

LAA

51-55

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000001
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-44122102
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.920
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-22000022
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000003
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-22100010
SPRINT257
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-22100011
SPRINT27.148
G. CamperoG. Campero★OF
0-22000000
K. NewmanK. Newman★3B
0-33101000
Team4-2727443149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HendricksK. Hendricks★SP
6.0211131
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0000010
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0000110
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000020
Team9.0211271

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    88 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.2 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      34%·87.6 mph·27% whiff
    • FS
      15%·82.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.1 mph·67% whiff
  • C. Legumina
    30 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Kowar
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      59%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      41%·87.0 mph·— whiff

LAA

  • K. Hendricks
    71 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      45%·85.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      37%·79.3 mph·7% whiff
    • FF
      14%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·71.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      37%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      26%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.2 mph·— whiff
  • R. Detmers
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·89.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      20%·74.1 mph·— whiff
  • K. Jansen
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FC
      70%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

4

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 4-3

Jun 7SEASEA4@LAALAA5
Jun 8SEASEA6@LAALAA8
Jun 8SEASEA3@LAALAA2
Jul 25SEASEA4@LAALAA2
Jul 26SEASEA2@LAALAA3
Jul 27SEASEA7@LAALAA2
Jul 27SEASEA1@LAALAA4today

Season series

SEA leads series 5-4

Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA9
Jun 7SEASEA4@LAALAA5
Jun 8SEASEA6@LAALAA8
Jun 8SEASEA3@LAALAA2
Jul 25SEASEA4@LAALAA2
Jul 26SEASEA2@LAALAA3
Jul 27SEASEA7@LAALAA2
Jul 27SEASEA1@LAALAA4today
Sep 12LAALAA6@SEASEA7
Sep 13LAALAA1@SEASEA2
Sep 14LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Sep 14LAALAA2@SEASEA11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAA beat SEA 4-1.

Win probability

LAA vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 53% WP

d'Arnaud walked.

LAABottom 5th Inning · 0-4
+14pp→ 91% WP

Trout · homered to center (443 feet), Newman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000001001
LAA00004000—4

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · LAA won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
4

Inn 5

Trout 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Raleigh 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
LAA

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  2. T9

    Naylor struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  7. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Josh Naylor

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  8. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  9. T9

    Raleigh popped out to third.

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

    +1pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  13. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Cal Raleigh

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  14. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  15. T9

    Rodríguez struck out swinging.

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

    +1pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  19. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  20. T9

    Jansen relieved Burke

    ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  23. B8

    · ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  24. B8

    Adell grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Ward out at second.

    · ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  27. B8

    Jackson Kowar pitches to Jo Adell

    · ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  28. B8

    · ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  29. B8

    Ward walked, Schanuel to second.

    · ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SEA 1·LAA 4

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

1

Runs

4

2

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

5

TB

8

1

HR

1

2

BB

4

7

K

9

7

LOB

9

Player projections

LAA vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    47.4%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.8%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.7%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688