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FINAL+2NYY
NYY

NYY

55-44

4
2
ATL

ATL

43-55

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
40,125 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 4 · ATL 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY2000011004
ATL0000010012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 30, 25sim 98
    121
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 97
    253
    29(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    252
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    61
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    121
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    123
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 20·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Sean Murphy

Sean Murphy

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY55-44
4
2
ATL43-55
NYY55-44·ATL43-55
NYY

NYY

55-44

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
0-55000001
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44211112
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-55000000
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
3-55130001
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.175
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-33111010
SPRINT24.74
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-33000010
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44010000
J. VivasJ. Vivas★3B
1-33011000
SPRINT26.838
Team9-3636494134
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. StromanM. Stroman★SP
6.0511041
I. HamiltonI. HamiltonRP
1.0000010
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0100010
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0111011
Team9.0722072
ATL

ATL

43-55

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-44000000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44111100
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-44121101
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-44010001
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000002
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000001
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-33000001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.148
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
1-22010000
SPRINT2744
S. MurphyS. MurphyC
1-11010000
Team7-3333272207
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. HolmesG. Holmes★SP
6.0733221
D. DunningD. DunningRP
3.0211120
Team9.0944341

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • M. Stroman
    95 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      31%·89.4 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      23%·88.6 mph·13% whiff
    • SV
      21%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      12%·81.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      3%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Williams
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • CH
      56%·82.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      44%·93.7 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Hill
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      91%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Hamilton
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.1 mph·100% whiff

ATL

  • G. Holmes
    100 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      36%·84.5 mph·35% whiff
    • FC
      29%·91.8 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.1 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.1 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      1%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dunning
    43 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      42%·89.2 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      26%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·85.5 mph·63% whiff
    • SL
      12%·80.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Jul 18NYYNYY3@ATLATL7
Jul 19NYYNYY12@ATLATL9
Jul 20NYYNYY4@ATLATL2today

Season series

NYY win series 2-1

Jul 18NYYNYY3@ATLATL7
Jul 19NYYNYY12@ATLATL9
Jul 20NYYNYY4@ATLATL2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 1st Inning

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

M. Stroman

M. Stroman

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H

ATLATL
S. Murphy

S. Murphy

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

G. Holmes

G. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat ATL 4-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 48% WP

Judge · homered to right center (409 feet).

NYYTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 59% WP

Goldschmidt · singled to center, Stanton scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.

NYYTop 6th Inning · 3-0
+10pp→ 87% WP

Vivas · hit by pitch, Goldschmidt scored, Volpe to second, Rice to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY2000011004
ATL0000010012

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · ATL won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Judge 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Vivas 1

Olson 1

1
0

Inn 7

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Acu 1

NYY
ATL

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  3. B9

    Ozuna grounded out to third.

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  7. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Marcell Ozuna

    · ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  8. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  9. B9

    Albies popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

    −3pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  12. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Ozzie Albies

    · ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  13. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  14. B9

    Baldwin struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

    −5pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  23. B9

    Devin Williams pitches to Drake Baldwin

    · ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  24. B9

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  25. B9

    Acuña Jr. homered to center (456 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

    +5pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·ATL 1

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

4

Runs

2

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

13

TB

13

1

HR

2

3

BB

0

4

K

7

15

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ATL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    2.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    45.7%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.7%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.