MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LAA

SEA

55-49

LAA

50-54

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

37,821 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
47.6%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.0%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.7%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low

Hits

Jo AdellLAA
1.2± 1.6high
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.8high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Colt EmersonSEA
2.1± 1.8high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.8high
Josh NaylorSEA
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.9low
Trey ManciniLAA
1.0± 1.1low
Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

LAA

.713

OPS

.717

.708

.316

OBP

.319

4.26

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.49

3.69

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.62

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

SEA 2 · LAA 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
SEA	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
LAA	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J.P. CrawfordSS	.274	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezCF	.256	5	2	2	2	2	0	1
C. RaleighC	.255	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. Naylor1B	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. ArozarenaLF	.249	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Polanco1B	.252	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CanzoneDH	.292	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Williamson2B	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Young2B	.254	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
Team		36	2	6	2	2	2	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.274

.256

.255

.250

.249

.252

.292

.254

.254

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. WooSP	6.0	4	2	2	2	6	96
E. BazardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
M. BrashRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
A. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
C. LeguminaRP	0.2	1	1	0	1	0	15
Team	9.2	5	3	2	3	11	157

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

Team

9.2

157

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.278	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
M. TroutCF	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. Schanuel1B	.277	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
T. WardLF	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. AdellRF	.235	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
Y. Moncada3B	.220	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. O'HoppeC	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. TaylorCF	.189	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Rengifo3B	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Newman3B	.210	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Wade Jr.1B	.180	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		34	3	5	3	0	3	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. SorianoSP	6.0	4	2	2	1	5	87
B. BurkeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
R. DetmersSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	17
K. JansenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
Team	10.0	6	2	2	2	9	143

Team

SEA

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.