MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CHC

STL

78-83

CHC

91-70

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

38,035 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.8%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
61.1%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.2%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Shota ImanagaCHC
5.8± 4.7low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.7low
Jameson TaillonCHC
4.7± 2.8low

Hits

Bryan TorresSTL
1.2± 1.1low
Alex BregmanCHC
1.1± 0.6high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryan TorresSTL
2.2± 2.6low
Ian HappCHC
2.0± 2.6high
Ivan HerreraSTL
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Ian HappCHC
0.9± 1.7high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.8± 1.5high
Michael BuschCHC
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonCHC
3.5± 2.9low
Shota ImanagaCHC
2.9± 4.0low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

STL 3 · CHC 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	3
CHC	1	0	0	0	2	1	1	2	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
L. Nootbaar★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
I. Herrera★DH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT25.513
A. Burleson★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Arenado★3B	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
SPRINT25.29
N. Gorman★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
SPRINT257
T. Saggese★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Crooks★C	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
J. Walker★RF	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	2	0
SPRINT28.891
V. Scott II★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	7-33	33	3	7	3	2	3	13

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

1-4

0-4

2-4

1-4

0-4

2-4

1-2

0-2

0-1

0-1

Team

7-33

	Pitching
M. McGreevy★SP	4.2	6	3	3	2	3	2
J. KingRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. FernandezRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	1
M. SvansonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0
J. AlcalaRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	1	1
Team	8.0	10	7	7	5	8	4

Pitching

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
M. Busch★1B	4-4	4	2	4	4	2	1	0
SPRINT25.716
N. Hoerner★2B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Happ★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
SPRINT27.662
K. Tucker★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Suzuki★RF	1-2	2	2	1	1	1	2	0
SPRINT27.457
C. Kelly★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	2-4	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
SPRINT29.294
D. Swanson★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Shaw★RF	0-3	3	2	0	0	0	1	2
SPRINT28.992
Team	10-33	33	7	10	7	4	5	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

M. Busch★1B

4-4