MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIA

MIA

74-80

TEX

79-75

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Joey WiemerWSH · RF
SPRINT28.891
Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
SPRINT28.891
Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
SPRINT28.483
Otto LopezMIA · SS
SPRINT28.381
Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
SPRINT2872

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

26,374 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.0%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
59.3%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.7%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.1%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.6low
Max MeyerMIA
6.2± 2.2low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.0± 2.5low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 1.4high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.9± 1.6high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.4high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.9± 1.4high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.8± 1.3high
Javier SanojaMIA
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.6± 3.8low
Janson JunkMIA
3.0± 3.8low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 6 · TEX 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	3	6
TEX	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	4

Final play

“End of the 12th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
A. Ramirez★C	1-6	6	2	1	0	0	0	3
SPRINT27.354
J. Marsee★CF	2-6	6	1	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.765
O. Lopez★SS	1-6	6	1	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT28.381
L. Hicks★C	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
H. Hernandez★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. Johnston★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Norby★1B	2-6	6	0	2	0	0	0	2
G. Pauley★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman★1B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Navarreto1B	1-1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
X. Edwards2B	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
SPRINT28.381

Team	14-49	49	6	14	6	1	3	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-6

2-6

1-6

1-3

0-2

0-2

2-6

1-2

1-5

1-1

2-3

1-4

1-3

Team

14-49

	Pitching
J. Junk★SP	7.0	3	1	1	0	5	0
L. BacharRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. GibsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. PetersenRP	1.0	1	2	1	0	0	1
G. SorianoRP	2.0	0	1	0	1	1	0
Team	12.0	4	4	2	1	7	1

Pitching

Player

7.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

12.0

	Batting
J. Smith★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Osuna★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Burger★1B	0-4	4	1	0	1	0	0	0
SPRINT2744
J. Pederson★DH	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT25.716
A. Garcia★RF	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Heim★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jung★3B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT25.920
C. Freeman★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Helman★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Duran2B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.891
D. MooreCF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Tellez1B	1-1	1	1	1	2	1	0	0

Team	4-38	38	4	4	4	1	1	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

1-3

0-4

1-3

0-5

0-3

1-4

0-4

0-4

0-2

0-2

1-1

Team

4-38

	Pitching
T. Mahle★SP	4.2	4	0	0	1	6	0
J. LatzRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	0
C. MartinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. GarciaRP	0.1	3	1	1	0	1	1
P. MatonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. MilnerRP	0.1	2	2	1	1	0	0
C. WinnRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0
P. CorbinSP	1.0	3	3	2	0	0	0
Team	12.0	14	6	4	3	10	1

Pitching

Player

4.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

1.2

1.0

0.1

1.2

1.0

Team

12.0

Team

MIA

TEX