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FINAL+2SEA
LAA

LAA

69-80

3
5
SEA

SEA

81-68

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
38,962 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

LAA 3 · SEA 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0200000013
SEA200120005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 13·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 6-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Los Angeles Angels, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jo Adell

Jo Adell

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford

SS

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA69-80
3
5
SEA81-68
LAA69-80·SEA81-68
LAA

LAA

69-80

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.688
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-33000002
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44111102
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44121102
SPRINT27.867
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
0-33100011
L. DavidsonL. Davidson★1B
0-44000002
D. GuzmanD. Guzman★SS
0-33000002
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
1-33010001
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-33011001
SPRINT29.395
C. TaylorC. TaylorCF
0-11000001
Team6-32323632116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FarrisM. Farris★RP
4.0555471
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.0100010
S. PeraltaS. PeraltaRP
3.0000020
Team8.06554101
SEA

SEA

81-68

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33000012
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-22210010
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-33210011
SPRINT28.688
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33012011
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000002
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44012001
SPRINT23.81
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-44000000
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-33000002
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-33121101
SPRINT25.513
Team6-29295651410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
6.03221131
L. JacksonL. JacksonRP
1.0000000
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
1.0100020
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0211011
Team9.06331162

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

3

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 6-0

Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA9
Sep 12LAALAA6@SEASEA7
Sep 13LAALAA1@SEASEA2
Sep 14LAALAA3@SEASEA5today
Sep 14LAALAA2@SEASEA11

Season series

SEA leads series 8-4

Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA9
Jun 7SEASEA4@LAALAA5
Jun 8SEASEA6@LAALAA8
Jun 8SEASEA3@LAALAA2
Jul 25SEASEA4@LAALAA2
Jul 26SEASEA2@LAALAA3
Jul 27SEASEA7@LAALAA2
Jul 27SEASEA1@LAALAA4
Sep 12LAALAA6@SEASEA7
Sep 13LAALAA1@SEASEA2
Sep 14LAALAA3@SEASEA5today
Sep 14LAALAA2@SEASEA11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 9th Inning

LAALAA
J. Adell

J. Adell

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Farris

M. Farris

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

SEASEA
J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcher13-K game

6.0 IP · 13 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat LAA 5-3.

Win probability

SEA vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 2nd Inning · 2-2
+9pp→ 29% WP

Teodosio · singled to right, Moore scored, Rivero to third.

SEABottom 4th Inning · 2-3
+11pp→ 81% WP

Crawford · homered to right center (391 feet).

SEATop 9th Inning · 3-5
+12pp→ 99% WP

Moore · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Adell out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0200000013
SEA20012000—5

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · SEA won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Polanco 2

2
0

Inn 2

Adell 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Crawford 1

0
2

Inn 5

Naylor 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Ward 1

LAA
SEA

Play-by-play · 519 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  2. T9

    Davidson struck out looking.

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  9. T9

    Matt Brash pitches to Logan Davidson

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  10. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  11. T9

    Moore grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Adell out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

    +12pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  15. T9

    Matt Brash pitches to Christian Moore

    · ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  16. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  17. T9

    Adell singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

    −7pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  25. T9

    Matt Brash pitches to Jo Adell

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  26. T9

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  27. T9

    Ward homered to left (381 feet).

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

    −3pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 3·SEA 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 5

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

3

Runs

5

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

12

TB

12

2

HR

1

1

BB

4

16

K

10

6

LOB

10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    233
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 96
    261
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    117
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    264
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    261
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 94
    14
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 11 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

SEA vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    62.5%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.2%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.