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FINAL+1SEA
LAA

LAA

69-78

6
7
SEA

SEA

79-68

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
19,129 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

LAA 6 · SEA 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789101112R
LAA0012100000116
SEA0400000000127

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 11·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 6-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Los Angeles Angels, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Logan Davidson

Logan Davidson

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Victor Robles

Victor Robles

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/12
LAA69-78
6
7
SEA79-68
LAA69-78·SEA79-68
LAA

LAA

69-78

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-66221103
SPRINT28.688
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44010013
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
2-55120011
SPRINT26.735
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-55121000
SPRINT27.457
C. TaylorC. Taylor★CF
0-44001002
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-55011002
SPRINT27.148
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-44000003
L. DavidsonL. Davidson★1B
2-44121102
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-33010000
S. RiveroS. RiveroC
0-11100000
M. LugoM. LugoLF
1-22011001
Team12-434361262217
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
4.0543340
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.0100000
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0000020
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0000000
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.0000010
SPRINT27.148
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000100
R. StephensonR. StephensonRP
1.0000020
S. PeraltaS. PeraltaRP
1.1331310
Team11.19747100
SEA

SEA

79-68

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44120021
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33000032
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-55022010
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-55100001
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-66121002
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-55000011
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-44200001
SPRINT28.175
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-33100000
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-55123001
SPRINT25.513
V. RoblesV. RoblesRF
1-11010000
D. CanzoneD. CanzoneDH
0-11000001
M. GarverM. GarverC
0-11000000
Team9-43437970710
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. MillerB. Miller★SP
5.26440112
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.1000020
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0200010
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.0000010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000020
L. JacksonL. JacksonRP
1.0210100
J. CastilloJ. CastilloRP
1.0210100
Team12.012642172

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SEA

  • C. Vargas
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      42%·96.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      32%·99.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      16%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Munoz
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      83%·85.3 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·98.1 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

9

6

Runs

7

2

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 6-0

Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA9
Sep 12LAALAA6@SEASEA7today
Sep 13LAALAA1@SEASEA2
Sep 14LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Sep 14LAALAA2@SEASEA11

Season series

SEA leads series 6-4

Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA9
Jun 7SEASEA4@LAALAA5
Jun 8SEASEA6@LAALAA8
Jun 8SEASEA3@LAALAA2
Jul 25SEASEA4@LAALAA2
Jul 26SEASEA2@LAALAA3
Jul 27SEASEA7@LAALAA2
Jul 27SEASEA1@LAALAA4
Sep 12LAALAA6@SEASEA7today
Sep 13LAALAA1@SEASEA2
Sep 14LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Sep 14LAALAA2@SEASEA11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 44pp · Bottom 12th Inning

LAALAA
L. Davidson

L. Davidson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
V. Robles

V. Robles

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcher11-K game

5.2 IP · 11 K · 4 ER · 6 H

How it ended

SEA beat LAA 7-6. Polanco's play in the bottom 12th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Win probability

SEA vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 11th Inning · 5-5
+39pp→ 66% WP

Crawford · singled to right, Raley scored.

LAATop 12th Inning · 5-5
+23pp→ 66% WP

Davidson · reached on bunt single to third, Rivero to third.

SEABottom 12th Inning · 6-6
+44pp→ 81% WP

Polanco · doubled to left, Naylor scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789101112R
LAA0012100000116
SEA0400000000127

Period scoring

LAA won 3 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
4

Inn 2

Crawford 2

1
0

Inn 3

Davidson 1

2
0

Inn 4

Taylor 1

1
0

Inn 5

Trout 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

1
1

Inn 11

Ward 1

Crawford 1

1
2

Inn 12

Lugo 1

Polanco 1

LAA
SEA

Play-by-play · 791 plays

period
event
player
  1. B12

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 7

  2. B12

    Ford hit sacrifice fly to right, Polanco scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 7

    +8pp

  3. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 7

  4. B12

    Sammy Peralta pitches to Harry Ford

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 7

  5. B12

    Ford hit for J. Castillo

    ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  6. B12

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  7. B12

    Robles reached on bunt single to pitcher, Suárez to second, Polanco to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

    +12pp

  8. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  9. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  10. B12

    Sammy Peralta pitches to Victor Robles

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  11. B12

    Robles hit for Raley

    ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  12. B12

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  13. B12

    Suárez intentionally walked.

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

    −1pp

  14. B12

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  15. B12

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  16. B12

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  17. B12

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  18. B12

    Sammy Peralta pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  19. B12

    ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  20. B12

    Polanco doubled to left, Naylor scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

    +44pp

  21. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  22. B12

    Naylor stole third.

    ·

    LAA 6·SEA 5

  23. B12

    Naylor stole third.

    ·

    LAA 6·SEA 5

  24. B12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  25. B12

    Sammy Peralta pitches to Jorge Polanco

    ·

    LAA 6·SEA 6

  26. B12

    Bottom of the 12th inning

    LAA 6·SEA 5

  27. M12

    Middle of the 12th inning

    LAA 6·SEA 5

  28. T12

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 5

  29. T12

    Moncada grounded out to second.

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 5

    −0.8pp

  30. T12

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 6·SEA 5

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

6

Runs

7

12

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

20

TB

13

2

HR

0

2

BB

7

17

K

10

20

LOB

30

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SEA vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    60.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.1%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.5%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 26, 25sim 97
    241
    16(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    248
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 95
    218
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    32
    12(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 94
    213
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    99
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs