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FINAL+2LAD
SF

SF

76-79

5
7
LAD

LAD

88-67

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,251 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SF 5 · LAD 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF4000001005
LAD200212007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 20·Final/SeriesLAD win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off San Francisco Giants, 7–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF76-79
5
7
LAD88-67
SF76-79·LAD88-67
SF

SF

76-79

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-55120002
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-55111101
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-33110021
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44100011
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
1-33113011
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT27.148
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-33000010
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-44000003
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-11001011
J. EncarnacionJ. EncarnacionRF
1-22010001
Team8-34345851612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. TengK. Teng★RP
3.0122261
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
0.2122201
M. GageM. GageRP
0.1100000
J. PegueroJ. PegueroRP
1.2533012
J. BrubakerJ. BrubakerRP
2.1100130
Team8.09775104
LAD

LAD

88-67

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-33211122
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-33110021
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44111002
SPRINT24.74
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-44112101
SPRINT27.354
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33011012
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-44111100
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-44000001
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
3-44131101
SPRINT2622
B. RortvedtB. Rortvedt★C
0-33000000
Team9-32327974510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
5.0644470
A. BandaA. BandaRP
1.0100010
K. YatesK. YatesRP
0.1111201
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
0.2000000
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0000030
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000010
Team9.08556121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAD

  • W. Klein
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • CU
      50%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·90.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

5

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 5-2

Jun 14SFSF6@LADLAD2
Jun 15SFSF5@LADLAD11
Jun 15SFSF4@LADLAD5
Sep 19SFSF1@LADLAD2
Sep 20SFSF3@LADLAD6
Sep 21SFSF5@LADLAD7today
Sep 21SFSF3@LADLAD1

Season series

LAD lead series 9-3

Jun 14SFSF6@LADLAD2
Jun 15SFSF5@LADLAD11
Jun 15SFSF4@LADLAD5
Jul 12LADLAD7@SFSF8
Jul 12LADLAD2@SFSF1
Jul 13LADLAD5@SFSF2
Sep 13LADLAD1@SFSF5
Sep 14LADLAD13@SFSF7
Sep 14LADLAD10@SFSF2
Sep 19SFSF1@LADLAD2
Sep 20SFSF3@LADLAD6
Sep 21SFSF5@LADLAD7today
Sep 21SFSF3@LADLAD1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SFSF
R. Devers

R. Devers

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

K. Teng

K. Teng

RP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
M. Conforto

M. Conforto

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SF 7-5. Muncy's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

LAD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+20pp→ 51% WP

Eldridge · doubled to left, Chapman scored, Ramos scored and Adames scored.

LADBottom 1st Inning · 4-2
+20pp→ 59% WP

Muncy · homered to right center (385 feet), Freeman scored.

LADBottom 4th Inning · 4-3
+14pp→ 58% WP

Conforto · homered to left center (395 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF4000001005
LAD20021200—7

Period scoring

SF won 2 · LAD won 3

4
2

Inn 1

Eldridge 3

Muncy 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Conforto 1

0
1

Inn 5

Edman 1

0
2

Inn 6

Ohtani 1

1
0

Inn 7

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
LAD

Play-by-play · 628 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  2. T9

    Chapman grounded out to third.

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  8. T9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Matt Chapman

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  9. T9

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  10. T9

    Adames struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

    +3pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  19. T9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  20. T9

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  21. T9

    Devers grounded out to first.

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

    +3pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  24. T9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Rafael Devers

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  25. T9

    Dreyer relieved Klein

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 5·LAD 7

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 5·LAD 7

  28. B8

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  29. B8

    T. Hernández struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 5·LAD 7

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

5

Runs

7

8

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

12

TB

22

1

HR

4

6

BB

5

12

K

10

18

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    60.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    218
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 95
    156
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 95
    241
    16(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    286
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    263
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 95
    304
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs