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    SEA 4@TOR 10
    +11.2ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+11CHC
STL

STL

78-82

1
12
CHC

CHC

90-70

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
35,611 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

STL 1 · CHC 12 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000001001
CHC1002107112

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 26·Final/SeriesCHC win series 5-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off St. Louis Cardinals, 12–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Nolan Gorman

Nolan Gorman

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL78-82
1
12
CHC90-70
STL78-82·CHC90-70
STL

STL

78-82

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
0-33000011
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33010001
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-22000011
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-33000001
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
2-44120002
SPRINT257
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.354
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-44000002
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-33011001
SPRINT28.891
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-33000002
J. CrooksJ. CrooksC
0-11000000
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-11000001
J. FerminJ. FerminLF
0-11000000
Team5-32321510214
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
5.0444143
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0100010
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
0.1455110
C. RoycroftC. RoycroftRP
1.2333111
Team8.0121212374
CHC

CHC

90-70

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-33222110
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-55221101
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-44121001
SPRINT27.662
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-44210010
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44114101
SPRINT27.457
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-33112101
SPRINT29.294
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33100011
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
0-44000001
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44111001
M. BallesterosM. BallesterosDH
1-11110000
K. AlcantaraK. AlcantaraRF
1-11011000
Team12-3636121212437
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
5.2200170
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.1111110
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0200030
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0000010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000020
Team9.05112140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. Mikolas
    79 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      30%·93.8 mph·21% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.1 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      18%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.2 mph·20% whiff
  • C. Roycroft
    41 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      49%·97.0 mph·45% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      24%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    31 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      39%·83.3 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      16%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. King
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      65%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.8 mph·100% whiff

CHC

  • C. Rea
    77 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.3 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      14%·83.0 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      12%·80.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      9%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·87.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      56%·90.1 mph·57% whiff
    • SI
      44%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      46%·96.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      23%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      36%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      70%·100.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      30%·90.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

12

1

Runs

12

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 5-1

Jul 4STLSTL3@CHCCHC11
Jul 5STLSTL8@CHCCHC6
Jul 6STLSTL0@CHCCHC11
Sep 26STLSTL1@CHCCHC12today
Sep 27STLSTL3@CHCCHC7
Sep 28STLSTL0@CHCCHC2

Season series

CHC lead series 6-5

Jun 23CHCCHC2@STLSTL8
Jun 24CHCCHC7@STLSTL8
Jun 25CHCCHC8@STLSTL0
Jun 26CHCCHC3@STLSTL0
Jul 4STLSTL3@CHCCHC11
Jul 5STLSTL8@CHCCHC6
Jul 6STLSTL0@CHCCHC11
Aug 9CHCCHC0@STLSTL5
Aug 9CHCCHC9@STLSTL1
Aug 10CHCCHC2@STLSTL3
Sep 26STLSTL1@CHCCHC12today
Sep 27STLSTL3@CHCCHC7
Sep 28STLSTL0@CHCCHC2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 4th Inning

STLSTL
N. Gorman

N. Gorman

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
M. Busch

M. Busch

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat STL 12-1.

Win probability

CHC vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 74% WP

Hoerner · homered to center (412 feet).

CHCBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 89% WP

Crow-Armstrong · homered to right center (396 feet), Tucker scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000001001
CHC10021071—12

Period scoring

STL won 0 · CHC won 5

0
1

Inn 1

Hoerner 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Crow-Armstrong 2

0
1

Inn 5

Busch 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
7

Inn 7

Walker 1

Suzuki 4

0
1

Inn 8

Alc 1

0

Inn 9

STL
CHC

Play-by-play · 578 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  2. T9

    Pagés popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  4. T9

    Brad Keller pitches to Pedro Pages

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  5. T9

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  6. T9

    Saggese struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  13. T9

    Brad Keller pitches to Thomas Saggese

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  14. T9

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  15. T9

    Gorman struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  22. T9

    Brad Keller pitches to Nolan Gorman

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  23. T9

    Keller relieved Palencia

    ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  24. T9

    Ballesteros at first base.

    STL 1·CHC 12

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    STL 1·CHC 12

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    STL 1·CHC 12

  27. B8

    · ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  28. B8

    Tucker popped out to third.

    · ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 1·CHC 12

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

1

Runs

12

5

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

6

TB

27

0

HR

4

2

BB

3

14

K

7

11

LOB

10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    218
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    213
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 97
    36
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    265
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    248
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 94
    219
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    59.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.8%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.