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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SEA
SEA

SEA

87-69

7
3
HOU

HOU

84-72

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
41,893 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 7 · HOU 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0700000007
HOU0010001103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 21·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Houston Astros and beat them, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Zach Cole

Zach Cole

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA87-69
7
3
HOU84-72
SEA87-69·HOU84-72
SEA

SEA

87-69

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44112103
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44010001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT23.81
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33110010
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-33100000
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-33101011
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44114101
SPRINT25.513
M. GarverM. GarverC
0-11000000
Team8-3434787227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
6.0311141
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
0.1311000
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.2111011
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0000010
Team9.0733162
HOU

HOU

84-72

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
2-33021011
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-44000001
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-44111101
SPRINT25.18
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-44000001
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-44000000
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-44000000
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
2-44221100
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT26.428
V. CaratiniV. CaratiniC
0-11000000
Team7-3535373216
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AlexanderJ. Alexander★RP
1.1777112
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.2000110
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
3.0000010
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0000030
N. HernandezN. HernandezRP
1.0100010
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0000000
Team9.0877272

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    91 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      32%·88.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·80.7 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.0 mph·40% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      60%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·94.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      5%·98.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SV
      38%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      31%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.2 mph·— whiff
  • M. Brash
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      73%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.5 mph·0% whiff

HOU

  • J. Alexander
    37 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      35%·80.5 mph·56% whiff
    • SI
      35%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    34 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      56%·93.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·80.1 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.9 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      20%·84.7 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      5%·82.5 mph·— whiff
  • N. Hernandez
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      39%·91.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      39%·82.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      22%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      86%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. King
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      55%·92.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      36%·80.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

7

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 4-3

May 23SEASEA2@HOUHOU9
May 24SEASEA5@HOUHOU3
May 24SEASEA1@HOUHOU2
May 25SEASEA3@HOUHOU5
Sep 20SEASEA4@HOUHOU0
Sep 20SEASEA6@HOUHOU4
Sep 21SEASEA7@HOUHOU3today

Season series

SEA wins series 8-5

Apr 8HOUHOU3@SEASEA4
Apr 9HOUHOU2@SEASEA1
Apr 9HOUHOU6@SEASEA7
May 23SEASEA2@HOUHOU9
May 24SEASEA5@HOUHOU3
May 24SEASEA1@HOUHOU2
May 25SEASEA3@HOUHOU5
Jul 19HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Jul 20HOUHOU6@SEASEA7
Jul 20HOUHOU11@SEASEA3
Sep 20SEASEA4@HOUHOU0
Sep 20SEASEA6@HOUHOU4
Sep 21SEASEA7@HOUHOU3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 2nd Inning

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
Z. Cole

Z. Cole

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

A. Blubaugh

A. Blubaugh

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 1 K · 0 ER

How it ended

SEA beat HOU 7-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 53% WP

Altuve · doubled to left.

SEATop 2nd Inning · 5-0
+17pp→ 92% WP

Crawford · homered to right (365 feet), Suárez scored, Canzone scored and Robles scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0700000007
HOU0010001103

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · HOU won 3

0
0

Inn 1

7
0

Inn 2

Crawford 4

0
1

Inn 3

Cole 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Altuve 1

0
1

Inn 8

Paredes 1

0
0

Inn 9

SEA
HOU

Play-by-play · 541 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  3. B9

    Altuve struck out looking.

    · ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  10. B9

    Matt Brash pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  11. B9

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  12. B9

    Caratini flied out to center.

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

    −0.5pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  17. B9

    Matt Brash pitches to Victor Caratini

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  18. B9

    Caratini hit for Dubón

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  19. B9

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  20. B9

    Cole grounded out to first.

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

    −0.9pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  22. B9

    Matt Brash pitches to Zachary Cole

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  23. B9

    Brash relieved Vargas

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  24. B9

    Garver as designated hitter.

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  27. T9

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  28. T9

    Crawford grounded out to third.

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 7·HOU 3

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

7

Runs

3

8

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

15

TB

14

2

HR

2

2

BB

1

7

K

6

8

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

HOU vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    47.8%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.2%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.5%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 20, 25sim 98
    126
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    27
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    22
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 95
    133
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    107
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    148
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs