• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3BOS
BOS

BOS

79-65

7
4
ARI

ARI

72-72

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
31,346 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 7 · ARI 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0001003037
ARI0101011004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 4, 25sim 97
    108
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 97
    135
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    126
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    225
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    133
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 96
    127
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Carlos Narvaez

Carlos Narvaez

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Gabriel Moreno

Gabriel Moreno

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS79-65
7
4
ARI72-72
BOS79-65·ARI72-72
BOS

BOS

79-65

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-44000000
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44100012
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-55000001
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-33121001
SPRINT27.969
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT25.411
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-11000010
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
1-33111001
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44010001
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-33000000
C. NarvaezC. NarvaezC
1-11011000
SPRINT257
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez1B
1-22110000
N. SogardN. Sogard3B
1-11112000
Team8-3434785046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
6.0433120
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
0.1211110
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.2000010
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000040
Team9.0644280
ARI

ARI

72-72

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44000001
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-44000000
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-33210011
SPRINT29.496
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-44121000
SPRINT26.428
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-44000000
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-44011002
SPRINT28.175
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT27.867
T. LocklearT. Locklear★1B
0-33000012
J. LawlarJ. Lawlar★LF
1-44011001
I. VargasI. Vargas1B
0-11000001
Team6-3434463028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
6.0311330
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.1231000
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
0.2000000
T. RashiT. RashiRP
1.2233120
K. BackhusK. BackhusRP
0.1100010
Team9.0875460

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • B. Bello
    91 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      35%·96.8 mph·7% whiff
    • FC
      30%·88.7 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.7 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      7%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      39%·97.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      35%·85.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      28%·84.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.7 mph·33% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FC
      56%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·97.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.4 mph·0% whiff

ARI

  • R. Nelson
    105 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      53%·96.0 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      26%·79.4 mph·31% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      1%·89.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Rashi
    32 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      53%·90.0 mph·60% whiff
    • FS
      22%·84.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      16%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      9%·74.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      50%·77.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·88.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Woodford
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      44%·81.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      22%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Backhus
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      56%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      44%·79.5 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

7

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 6BOSBOS5@ARIARI10
Sep 7BOSBOS1@ARIARI5
Sep 7BOSBOS7@ARIARI4today

Season series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 6BOSBOS5@ARIARI10
Sep 7BOSBOS1@ARIARI5
Sep 7BOSBOS7@ARIARI4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 47pp · Top 9th Inning

BOSBOS
C. Narvaez

C. Narvaez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
G. Moreno

G. Moreno

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat ARI 7-4. Sogard's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (47pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 7th Inning · 4-3
+36pp→ 68% WP

Lowe · scored on error and Hamilton scored on error, Wong safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Lawlar, Wong safe at second on error.

ARIBottom 7th Inning · 4-4
+20pp→ 63% WP

Lawlar · singled to left, Thomas scored, Locklear to second.

BOSTop 9th Inning · 6-4
+47pp→ 93% WP

Sogard · doubled to center, Eaton scored and González scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0001003037
ARI0101011004

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · ARI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Alexander 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Story 1

Alexander 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Moreno 1

3
1

Inn 7

Lowe 2

Lawlar 1

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Sogard 2

BOS
ARI

Play-by-play · 604 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  3. B9

    Lawlar struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  10. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Jordan Lawlar

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  11. B9

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  12. B9

    Locklear struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

    −3pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  19. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Tyler Locklear

    · ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  20. B9

    Vargas struck out, Vargas to first on wild pitch by Chapman.

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

    +2pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  27. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Ildemaro Vargas

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  28. B9

    Vargas hit for Thomas

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  29. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

  30. B9

    Alexander struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 7·ARI 4

    −2pp

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

7

Runs

4

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

2

10

TB

7

0

HR

0

4

BB

2

6

K

8

17

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    48.6%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.5%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.8%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.