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FINAL+5NYY
BOS

BOS

71-60

2
7
NYY

NYY

70-60

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
44,640 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

BOS 2 · NYY 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000020002
NYY021110027

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Boston Red Sox, 7–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

DH

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham

CF

5.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS71-60
2
7
NYY70-60
BOS71-60·NYY70-60
BOS

BOS

71-60

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
0-33100011
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT25.818
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-44000002
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-22000011
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
0-22000000
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-33000012
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.790
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-44010002
SPRINT257
J. GarciaJ. Garcia★RF
0-11000011
N. LoweN. LoweDH
2-22022000
SPRINT25.411
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
0-22000000
Team5-30302520510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
4.1555333
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.1000020
W. BuehlerW. BuehlerSP
2.1222121
Team8.0777474
NYY

NYY

70-60

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
2-22222220
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33000012
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-33000011
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000000
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-33220001
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-44224200
SPRINT28.175
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-33000002
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-33001000
SPRINT28.278
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000001
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
1-11110000
SPRINT24.74
Team7-2929777447
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
5.2122530
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
1.1200030
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000020
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0200020
Team9.05225100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • D. May
    70 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      37%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.1 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      16%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Buehler
    35 pitches·23% CSW
    • KC
      26%·77.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      23%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·88.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      3%·83.3 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      56%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      11%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·85.2 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    103 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.6 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      16%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    22 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      77%·96.2 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      14%·92.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • FC
      44%·98.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      44%·89.8 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      11%·99.6 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Williams
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.4 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      47%·83.6 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 5-2

Jun 6BOSBOS6@NYYNYY9
Jun 7BOSBOS10@NYYNYY7
Jun 8BOSBOS11@NYYNYY7
Aug 21BOSBOS6@NYYNYY3
Aug 22BOSBOS1@NYYNYY0
Aug 23BOSBOS12@NYYNYY1
Aug 24BOSBOS2@NYYNYY7today

Season series

BOS leads series 8-2

Jun 6BOSBOS6@NYYNYY9
Jun 7BOSBOS10@NYYNYY7
Jun 8BOSBOS11@NYYNYY7
Jun 13NYYNYY1@BOSBOS2
Jun 14NYYNYY3@BOSBOS4
Jun 15NYYNYY0@BOSBOS2
Aug 21BOSBOS6@NYYNYY3
Aug 22BOSBOS1@NYYNYY0
Aug 23BOSBOS12@NYYNYY1
Aug 24BOSBOS2@NYYNYY7today
Sep 12NYYNYY4@BOSBOS1
Sep 13NYYNYY5@BOSBOS3
Sep 14NYYNYY4@BOSBOS6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

BOSBOS
N. Lowe

N. Lowe

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

NYYNYY
T. Grisham

T. Grisham

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-2 · 2 HR · 5.000 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 5 BB

How it ended

NYY beat BOS 7-2.

Win probability

NYY vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 34% WP

Rice · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Judge out at second, Grisham to third.

NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 83% WP

Chisholm Jr. · homered to right center (372 feet), Stanton scored.

NYYTop 3rd Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 83% WP

Gonz · ález grounded into double play, third to second to first, Garcia out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000020002
NYY02111002—7

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · NYY won 5

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Jr. 2

0
1

Inn 3

Grisham 1

0
1

Inn 4

Caballero 1

0
1

Inn 5

Grisham 1

2
0

Inn 6

Lowe 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Jr. 2

0

Inn 9

BOS
NYY

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  2. T9

    Yoshida grounded out to third.

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  5. T9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  6. T9

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  7. T9

    Narváez struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

    +1pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  14. T9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Carlos Narvaez

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  15. T9

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  16. T9

    Rafaela doubled to left, Lowe to third.

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

    −1pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  21. T9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  22. T9

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  23. T9

    Duran struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

    +0.7pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  28. T9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  29. T9

    ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

  30. T9

    Lowe singled to center.

    ·

    BOS 2·NYY 7

    −0.7pp

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

2

Runs

7

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

6

TB

20

0

HR

4

5

BB

4

10

K

7

17

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    47.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.1%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    24
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    127
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    220
    17(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    126
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    22
    25(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 94
    221
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs