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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4STL
MIL

MIL

95-61

1
5
STL

STL

76-80

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
32,723 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

MIL 1 · STL 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0000100001
STL002200015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 21·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Milwaukee Brewers, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andruw Monasterio

Andruw Monasterio

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera

DH

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL95-61
1
5
STL76-80
MIL95-61·STL76-80
MIL

MIL

95-61

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-44001003
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000021
SPRINT27.867
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
0-44000001
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-33000002
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-22000000
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
3-44030000
SPRINT2744
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-44000001
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
2-33020001
SPRINT28.586
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
2-33120000
SPRINT28.790
C. YelichC. YelichDH
0-11000001
B. TurangB. Turang2B
0-11000000
Team7-32321710210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. GasserR. Gasser★SP
3.0122221
E. FeddeE. FeddeSP
4.0133310
R. ZastryznyR. ZastryznyRP
0.2100110
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.1000100
Team8.0355741
STL

STL

76-80

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
0-44000000
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-22212110
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.513
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
0-33000000
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-22100020
SPRINT28.891
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-00000000
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
1-33013011
SPRINT27.148
J. CrooksJ. Crooks★C
0-44000001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-22100010
N. GormanN. Gorman3B
0-33100011
SPRINT257
Team3-2626535174
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
5.0511160
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
2.0200120
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.0000020
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000000
Team9.07112100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • E. Fedde
    56 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      30%·82.7 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      27%·89.2 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      16%·91.4 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Gasser
    45 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      38%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.0 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      4%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·79.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • R. Zastryzny
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • FC
      40%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      40%·80.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.7 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • M. Liberatore
    85 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.7 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      27%·77.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.0 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      9%·87.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      2%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    35 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      54%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      14%·92.9 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Fernandez
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      56%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      38%·95.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      40%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·83.0 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

3

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 4-2

Apr 26MILMIL2@STLSTL3
Apr 26MILMIL5@STLSTL6
Apr 27MILMIL7@STLSTL1
Sep 20MILMIL1@STLSTL7
Sep 20MILMIL3@STLSTL2
Sep 21MILMIL1@STLSTL5today

Season series

MIL wins series 7-6

Apr 26MILMIL2@STLSTL3
Apr 26MILMIL5@STLSTL6
Apr 27MILMIL7@STLSTL1
Jun 12STLSTL0@MILMIL6
Jun 14STLSTL2@MILMIL3
Jun 14STLSTL8@MILMIL5
Jun 15STLSTL2@MILMIL3
Sep 13STLSTL2@MILMIL8
Sep 14STLSTL8@MILMIL9
Sep 14STLSTL3@MILMIL2
Sep 20MILMIL1@STLSTL7
Sep 20MILMIL3@STLSTL2
Sep 21MILMIL1@STLSTL5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MILMIL
A. Monasterio

A. Monasterio

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

STLSTL
I. Herrera

I. Herrera

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat MIL 5-1. Herrera's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

STL vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 45% WP

Vaughn · struck out swinging.

STLBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+20pp→ 75% WP

Herrera · homered to left center (419 feet), Scott II scored.

STLBottom 4th Inning · 0-4
+10pp→ 93% WP

Ferm · ín doubled to left, Gorman scored and Walker scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0000100001
STL00220001—5

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · STL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Herrera 2

0
2

Inn 4

Ferm 2

1
0

Inn 5

Chourio 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Ferm 1

0

Inn 9

MIL
STL

Play-by-play · 543 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  2. T9

    Collins flied out to left.

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  5. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Isaac Collins

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  6. T9

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  7. T9

    Chourio grounded out to pitcher, Bauers to second.

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

    +1pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  11. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Jackson Chourio

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  12. T9

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  13. T9

    Bauers hit by pitch.

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

    −1pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  16. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Jake Bauers

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  17. T9

    Bauers hit for Ortiz

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  18. T9

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  19. T9

    Turang flied out to center.

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

    +0.9pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  28. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Brice Turang

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  29. T9

    O'Brien relieved Fernandez

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

  30. T9

    Turang hit for Perkins

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 5

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

STL

Home

1

Runs

5

7

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

9

TB

7

0

HR

1

2

BB

7

10

K

4

20

LOB

14

Player projections

STL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    36.9%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    35.6%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    36.2%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 20, 25sim 97
    83
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    81
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 91
    83
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 90
    87
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 89
    84
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 89
    85
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175