• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6STL
MIL

MIL

94-60

1
7
STL

STL

75-79

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
29,752 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

MIL 1 · STL 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0010000001
STL110050007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 19·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Milwaukee Brewers, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL94-60
1
7
STL75-79
MIL94-60·STL75-79
MIL

MIL

94-60

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-55111102
SPRINT28.790
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-55020000
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
2-55020003
SPRINT27.148
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-33010000
SPRINT24.96
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
0-33000002
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000001
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
3-33030010
SPRINT2744
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-44010001
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-44010000
D. JansenD. JansenC
1-22010001
A. MonasterioA. MonasterioSS
0-11000000
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins1B
0-11000001
Team12-393911211111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MisiorowskiJ. Misiorowski★SP
3.2522330
R. ZastryznyR. ZastryznyRP
0.1333000
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.2422010
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
1.1000010
T. MyersT. MyersRP
2.0200110
Team8.01477460
STL

STL

75-79

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
2-44220010
SPRINT25.18
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44110011
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
3-44130000
SPRINT25.513
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-55113002
SPRINT25.29
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
1-33011000
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-22211021
SPRINT27.354
P. PagesP. Pages★C
2-44020001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-44021000
SPRINT28.891
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-44010001
Team14-34347146046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
6.0911071
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
2.0100120
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.0200020
Team9.012111111

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

14

1

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 4-2

Apr 26MILMIL2@STLSTL3
Apr 26MILMIL5@STLSTL6
Apr 27MILMIL7@STLSTL1
Sep 20MILMIL1@STLSTL7today
Sep 20MILMIL3@STLSTL2
Sep 21MILMIL1@STLSTL5

Season series

MIL leads series 6-5

Apr 26MILMIL2@STLSTL3
Apr 26MILMIL5@STLSTL6
Apr 27MILMIL7@STLSTL1
Jun 12STLSTL0@MILMIL6
Jun 14STLSTL2@MILMIL3
Jun 14STLSTL8@MILMIL5
Jun 15STLSTL2@MILMIL3
Sep 13STLSTL2@MILMIL8
Sep 14STLSTL8@MILMIL9
Sep 14STLSTL3@MILMIL2
Sep 20MILMIL1@STLSTL7today
Sep 20MILMIL3@STLSTL2
Sep 21MILMIL1@STLSTL5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 3rd Inning

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

STLSTL
A. Burleson

A. Burleson

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 9 H

How it ended

STL beat MIL 7-1.

Win probability

STL vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 2nd Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 67% WP

Collins · struck out swinging.

MILTop 3rd Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 35% WP

Frelick · homered to right (422 feet).

STLBottom 5th Inning · 1-5
+10pp→ 95% WP

Arenado · doubled to left, Burleson scored on error, Donovan scored and Herrera scored, Arenado safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Turang.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0010000001
STL11005000—7

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · STL won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Nootbaar 1

0
1

Inn 2

Walker 1

1
0

Inn 3

Frelick 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
5

Inn 5

Arenado 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIL
STL

Play-by-play · 599 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  2. T9

    Jansen struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  7. T9

    Ryan Fernandez pitches to Danny Jansen

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  8. T9

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  9. T9

    Yelich struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  13. T9

    Ryan Fernandez pitches to Christian Yelich

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  14. T9

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  15. T9

    Chourio reached on infield single to third, Ortiz to second.

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  18. T9

    Ryan Fernandez pitches to Jackson Chourio

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  19. T9

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  20. T9

    Frelick flied out to center.

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  24. T9

    Ryan Fernandez pitches to Sal Frelick

    · ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  25. T9

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  26. T9

    Ortiz singled to right.

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 1·STL 7

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

STL

Home

1

Runs

7

12

Hits

14

1

Errors

0

15

TB

18

1

HR

0

1

BB

4

11

K

6

21

LOB

22

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 21, 25sim 96
    81
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 93
    83
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 92
    87
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 92
    85
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 89
    83
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 87
    224
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

STL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    35.9%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    36.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    35.2%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.