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FINAL+2MIL
MIL

MIL

68-44

3
1
ATL

ATL

47-64

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
30,790 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 3 · ATL 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0003000003
ATL1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 4·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Isaac Collins

Isaac Collins

LF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Jurickson Profar

Jurickson Profar

LF

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL68-44
3
1
ATL47-64
MIL68-44·ATL47-64
MIL

MIL

68-44

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-11100020
SPRINT24.96
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-33010010
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-44100000
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-22113110
SPRINT27.867
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-44000000
A. SeiglerA. Seigler★2B
0-22000000
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
0-33000000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-33000001
C. DurbinC. Durbin3B
0-22000000
Team3-2828333142
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Q. PriesterQ. Priester★SP
7.0211241
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0100110
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0000010
Team9.0311361
ATL

ATL

47-64

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-22111121
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.513
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-33000000
SPRINT26.632
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
0-44000001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000000
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000001
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-44000001
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-33010000
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-22000001
Team3-3030131136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. FeddeE. Fedde★SP
5.1333201
A. BummerA. BummerRP
1.2000010
D. HernandezD. HernandezRP
1.0000210
D. DoddD. DoddRP
1.0000000
Team9.0333421

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • Q. Priester
    90 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      57%·94.1 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      20%·92.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      82%·98.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Megill
    7 pitches·71% CSW
    • KC
      86%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·100.6 mph·100% whiff

ATL

  • E. Fedde
    87 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      49%·93.1 mph·6% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·83.2 mph·20% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      45%·81.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      25%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hernandez
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      60%·88.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      40%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      33%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      17%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

3

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

Aug 4MILMIL3@ATLATL1today
Aug 5MILMIL7@ATLATL2
Aug 6MILMIL5@ATLATL4

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Jun 9ATLATL7@MILMIL1
Jun 10ATLATL1@MILMIL4
Jun 11ATLATL6@MILMIL2
Aug 4MILMIL3@ATLATL1today
Aug 5MILMIL7@ATLATL2
Aug 6MILMIL5@ATLATL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 4th Inning

MILMIL
I. Collins

I. Collins

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

Q. Priester

Q. Priester

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

ATLATL
J. Profar

J. Profar

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

E. Fedde

E. Fedde

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat ATL 3-1. Collins's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+16pp→ 60% WP

Profar · homered to right (390 feet).

MILTop 4th Inning · 3-1
+26pp→ 75% WP

Collins · homered to right (376 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.

MILBottom 8th Inning · 3-1
+14pp→ 84% WP

Baldwin · lined out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0003000003
ATL1000000001

Period scoring

MIL won 1 · ATL won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Profar 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
0

Inn 4

Collins 3

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
ATL

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  3. B9

    White grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  7. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Eli White

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  8. B9

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  9. B9

    Albies struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

    −3pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  13. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Ozzie Albies

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  14. B9

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  15. B9

    Harris II flied out to center.

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

    −4pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  17. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Michael Harris II

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  18. B9

    Megill relieved Uribe

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  21. T9

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  22. T9

    Durbin flied out to left.

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  27. T9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Caleb Durbin

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  28. T9

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

  29. T9

    Perkins grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

    +0.6pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·ATL 1

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

3

Runs

1

3

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

6

TB

7

1

HR

1

4

BB

3

2

K

6

11

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ATL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.4high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.4± 3.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.8± 1.6high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    2.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    36.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    33.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    36.8%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 93
    87
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 92
    83
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 91
    85
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 91
    81
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 89
    81
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 89
    141
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs