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FINAL+3MIL
MIL

MIL

88-55

4
1
PIT

PIT

64-79

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
17,975 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 4 · PIT 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0002000204
PIT0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 6·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL88-55
4
1
PIT64-79
MIL88-55·PIT64-79
MIL

MIL

88-55

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
2-44120000
SPRINT28.790
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-44112100
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-33110000
SPRINT24.96
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
2-33122101
SPRINT2744
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-33010002
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-44000001
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-33000011
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-44000000
D. JansenD. JansenC
0-11000001
Team8-3333484218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WoodruffB. Woodruff★SP
6.0200080
E. FeddeE. FeddeSP
0.2100000
R. ZastryznyR. ZastryznyRP
0.1000100
T. MyersT. MyersRP
0.1100100
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.2111120
Team9.05113100
PIT

PIT

64-79

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.483
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-33000002
SPRINT24.85
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-33120010
SPRINT27.969
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-44000001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-33001011
SPRINT28.483
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-44000003
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-22000011
C. DevanneyC. Devanney★SS
0-33000000
A. CanarioA. CanarioLF
0-11000000
Team5-31311510310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
6.1522041
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
1.0000020
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.2322121
Team9.0844182

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • B. Woodruff
    85 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      29%·93.5 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      28%·93.2 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      25%·89.5 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      2%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·81.5 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      30%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      20%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Myers
    13 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      46%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      31%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Fedde
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      40%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      30%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Zastryzny
    9 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      44%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.8 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • M. Keller
    92 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      35%·82.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.5 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·78.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      3%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    38 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      39%·90.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      24%·78.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      18%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      38%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·84.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      23%·90.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

5

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 5-2

May 22MILMIL8@PITPIT5
May 23MILMIL5@PITPIT6
May 24MILMIL1@PITPIT2
May 25MILMIL6@PITPIT5
Sep 5MILMIL5@PITPIT2
Sep 6MILMIL4@PITPIT1today
Sep 7MILMIL10@PITPIT2

Season series

MIL leads series 9-3

May 22MILMIL8@PITPIT5
May 23MILMIL5@PITPIT6
May 24MILMIL1@PITPIT2
May 25MILMIL6@PITPIT5
Jun 23PITPIT5@MILMIL4
Jun 24PITPIT3@MILMIL9
Jun 25PITPIT2@MILMIL4
Aug 11PITPIT1@MILMIL7
Aug 12PITPIT0@MILMIL14
Aug 13PITPIT5@MILMIL12
Sep 5MILMIL5@PITPIT2
Sep 6MILMIL4@PITPIT1today
Sep 7MILMIL10@PITPIT2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 4th Inning

MILMIL
J. Bauers

J. Bauers

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

B. Woodruff

B. Woodruff

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H

How it ended

MIL beat PIT 4-1. Bauers's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+23pp→ 74% WP

Bauers · homered to right center (382 feet), Contreras scored.

PITBottom 7th Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 26% WP

Reynolds · doubled to center.

MILTop 8th Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 97% WP

Chourio · homered to left (365 feet), Frelick scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0002000204
PIT0000000011

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · PIT won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Bauers 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Chourio 2

0
1

Inn 9

Cruz 1

MIL
PIT

Play-by-play · 541 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  3. B9

    Yorke struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  8. B9

    Aaron Ashby pitches to Nick Yorke

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  9. B9

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  10. B9

    Cruz grounded out to second, Reynolds scored, N. Gonzales to third.

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

    −3pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  12. B9

    Aaron Ashby pitches to Oneil Cruz

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 1

  13. B9

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  14. B9

    N. Gonzales hit a ground rule double, Reynolds to third.

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

    +3pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  17. B9

    Aaron Ashby pitches to Nick Gonzales

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  18. B9

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  19. B9

    Pham struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

    −2pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  25. B9

    Aaron Ashby pitches to Tommy Pham

    · ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  26. B9

    ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  27. B9

    Reynolds walked.

    ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

    +2pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 4·PIT 0

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

4

Runs

1

8

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

16

TB

7

2

HR

0

1

BB

3

8

K

10

12

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 5, 25sim 96
    85
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 91
    223
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 91
    810
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 91
    80
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 90
    83
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 89
    84
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

PIT vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.9± 1.8high
  • Oneil CruzPIT
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    40.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    39.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.2%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.