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FINAL+1MIL
MIL

MIL

95-60

3
2
STL

STL

75-80

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
36,212 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 3 · STL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
MIL01000100013
STL00011000002

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 20·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andrew Vaughn

Andrew Vaughn

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
MIL95-60
3
2
STL75-80
MIL95-60·STL75-80
MIL

MIL

95-60

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-55010001
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
1-55110000
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-55000000
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-33010010
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-55011002
SPRINT28.586
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-55110001
SPRINT28.175
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT2744
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-11011020
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
2-44021000
SPRINT28.790
D. JansenD. JansenC
0-11000000
Team9-3838393035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PatrickC. Patrick★RP
4.1522030
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
2.2400010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000020
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
2.0000010
Team10.0922070
STL

STL

75-80

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
1-55011000
SPRINT25.18
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44110000
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-44010000
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
2-44021001
SPRINT25.29
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-44010000
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000002
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-44110002
SPRINT25.716
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-33020001
SPRINT28.891
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-11000001
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-11000000
Team9-3434292007
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
5.0722230
K. LeahyK. LeahySP
2.0100010
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.1000110
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.2110000
Team10.0932350

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • C. Patrick
    56 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      45%·89.2 mph·24% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      2%·86.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Ashby
    39 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      46%·98.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      21%·91.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      13%·98.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      10%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      53%·98.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      41%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      6%·99.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      38%·85.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      19%·91.2 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • M. Mikolas
    95 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      26%·94.2 mph·7% whiff
    • CU
      25%·78.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.0 mph·25% whiff
  • K. Leahy
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      33%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      4%·91.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      58%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      47%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      35%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.4 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

9

3

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 4-2

Apr 26MILMIL2@STLSTL3
Apr 26MILMIL5@STLSTL6
Apr 27MILMIL7@STLSTL1
Sep 20MILMIL1@STLSTL7
Sep 20MILMIL3@STLSTL2today
Sep 21MILMIL1@STLSTL5

Season series

MIL leads series 7-5

Apr 26MILMIL2@STLSTL3
Apr 26MILMIL5@STLSTL6
Apr 27MILMIL7@STLSTL1
Jun 12STLSTL0@MILMIL6
Jun 14STLSTL2@MILMIL3
Jun 14STLSTL8@MILMIL5
Jun 15STLSTL2@MILMIL3
Sep 13STLSTL2@MILMIL8
Sep 14STLSTL8@MILMIL9
Sep 14STLSTL3@MILMIL2
Sep 20MILMIL1@STLSTL7
Sep 20MILMIL3@STLSTL2today
Sep 21MILMIL1@STLSTL5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 10th Inning

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Patrick

C. Patrick

RP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H

STLSTL
J. Walker

J. Walker

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat STL 3-2. Donovan's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

STL vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 6th Inning · 1-2
+21pp→ 44% WP

Durbin · doubled to left.

MILBottom 9th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 53% WP

Pozo · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Walker out at second.

MILBottom 10th Inning · 3-2
+36pp→ 96% WP

Donovan · grounded into double play, pitcher to first to third, Nootbaar out at third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
MIL01000100013
STL00011000002

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · STL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Ortiz 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Arenado 1

0
1

Inn 5

Donovan 1

1
0

Inn 6

Vaughn 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
0

Inn 10

Turang 1

MIL
STL

Play-by-play · 579 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    MIL 3·STL 2

  2. B10

    ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  3. B10

    Herrera flied out to left.

    ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

    −4pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  5. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  6. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  7. B10

    Jared Koenig pitches to Ivan Herrera

    ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  8. B10

    ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  9. B10

    Donovan grounded into double play, pitcher to first to third, Nootbaar out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

    −36pp

  10. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  11. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  12. B10

    Jared Koenig pitches to Brendan Donovan

    ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  13. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    MIL 3·STL 2

  14. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    MIL 3·STL 2

  15. T10

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  16. T10

    Durbin flied out to center.

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  17. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  18. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  19. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  20. T10

    JoJo Romero pitches to Caleb Durbin

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  21. T10

    ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  22. T10

    Turang singled to center, Chourio scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

    −29pp

  23. T10

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  24. T10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 2·STL 2

  25. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 2·STL 2

  26. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 2·STL 2

  27. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 2·STL 2

  28. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 2·STL 2

  29. T10

    JoJo Romero pitches to Brice Turang

    · ·

    MIL 3·STL 2

  30. T10

    · ·

    MIL 2·STL 2

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

STL

Home

3

Runs

2

9

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

14

TB

9

0

HR

0

3

BB

0

5

K

7

18

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 21, 25sim 97
    81
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 93
    81
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 92
    83
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 91
    141
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 90
    84
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 89
    140
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

STL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    37.7%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    36.1%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    37.0%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.