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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SEA
SEA

SEA

85-69

4
0
HOU

HOU

84-70

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
41,471 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 4 · HOU 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA1001001104
HOU0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Player projections

HOU vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    50.3%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.9%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    252
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    223
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    253
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 93
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 93
    132
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 93
    107
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 19·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Houston Astros and beat them, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Isaac Paredes

Isaac Paredes

3B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA85-69
4
0
HOU84-70
SEA85-69·HOU84-70
SEA

SEA

85-69

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-55000002
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-22000020
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44111101
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-44121101
SPRINT23.81
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44111102
SPRINT25.818
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44010003
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
1-33111100
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
3-44030000
SPRINT25.513
Team9-34344944210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
5.0100170
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
2.0000020
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0100000
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0100020
Team9.03001110
HOU

HOU

84-70

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT28.483
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT27.251
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-33010012
SPRINT25.18
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000002
SPRINT27.867
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-44000002
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000003
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-33000000
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000000
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.867
Team3-31310300111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. BrownH. Brown★SP
6.0522292
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0211001
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0111001
N. HernandezN. HernandezRP
1.0100010
Team9.09442104

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • E. Bazardo
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      73%·95.3 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      27%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Munoz
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      79%·84.5 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      14%·98.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.8 mph·0% whiff

HOU

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

4

Runs

0

2

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 4-3

May 23SEASEA2@HOUHOU9
May 24SEASEA5@HOUHOU3
May 24SEASEA1@HOUHOU2
May 25SEASEA3@HOUHOU5
Sep 20SEASEA4@HOUHOU0today
Sep 20SEASEA6@HOUHOU4
Sep 21SEASEA7@HOUHOU3

Season series

SEA leads series 6-5

Apr 8HOUHOU3@SEASEA4
Apr 9HOUHOU2@SEASEA1
Apr 9HOUHOU6@SEASEA7
May 23SEASEA2@HOUHOU9
May 24SEASEA5@HOUHOU3
May 24SEASEA1@HOUHOU2
May 25SEASEA3@HOUHOU5
Jul 19HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Jul 20HOUHOU6@SEASEA7
Jul 20HOUHOU11@SEASEA3
Sep 20SEASEA4@HOUHOU0today
Sep 20SEASEA6@HOUHOU4
Sep 21SEASEA7@HOUHOU3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 4th Inning

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
I. Paredes

I. Paredes

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

H. Brown

H. Brown

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat HOU 4-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 53% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to left (366 feet).

SEATop 4th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 71% WP

Suárez homered to left center (425 feet).

SEATop 7th Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 90% WP

Robles · homered to left (392 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA1001001104
HOU0000000000

Period scoring

SEA won 4 · HOU won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Rodr 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Robles 1

1
0

Inn 8

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 9

SEA
HOU

Play-by-play · 530 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  3. B9

    Cole struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  7. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Zachary Cole

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  8. B9

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  9. B9

    Altuve flied out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

    −1pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  14. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Jose Altuve

    · ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  15. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  16. B9

    Paredes singled to left.

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

    +1pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  22. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Isaac Paredes

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  23. B9

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  24. B9

    Correa struck out looking.

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

    −1pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  29. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Carlos Correa

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

  30. B9

    Muñoz relieved Brash

    ·

    SEA 4·HOU 0

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

4

Runs

0

9

Hits

3

2

Errors

0

21

TB

4

4

HR

0

2

BB

1

10

K

11

12

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483