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FINAL+1SEA
SD

SD

75-59

3
4
SEA

SEA

72-62

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
37,600 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SD 3 · SEA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000020013
SEA010300004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 97
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    223
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    252
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    107
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 95
    132
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    223
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 27·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off San Diego Padres, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Jake Cronenworth

Jake Cronenworth

2B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Victor Robles

Victor Robles

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD75-59
3
4
SEA72-62
SD75-59·SEA72-62
SD

SD

75-59

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-55021000
SPRINT28.483
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-44100002
SPRINT2872
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000002
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
2-44021001
SPRINT26.735
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
1-33010000
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-22111010
SPRINT28.891
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-33000002
L. ArraezL. Arraez2B
0-11000000
W. WagnerW. Wagner3B
0-11000000
Team8-3535383019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. DarvishY. Darvish★SP
4.0444131
A. JacobA. JacobRP
1.1000000
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
0.2200110
D. MorganD. MorganRP
0.2100100
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
1.1100010
Team8.0844351
SEA

SEA

72-62

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000001
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-33000010
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44120000
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
2-44223101
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.310
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-22011000
SPRINT28.175
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000001
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000000
V. RoblesV. RoblesRF
1-11010010
Team8-3232484135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
5.2622160
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.1000010
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0000000
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0000020
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0211000
Team9.0833190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • Y. Darvish
    69 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      38%·91.0 mph·36% whiff
    • CU
      20%·71.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      20%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      3%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      59%·95.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      32%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Matsui
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      44%·84.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      38%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      6%·86.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Morgan
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Jacob
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      70%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·74.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      10%·71.2 mph·— whiff

SEA

  • B. Woo
    95 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      36%·96.0 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      14%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      2%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·87.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Munoz
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      16%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • SI
      62%·97.0 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      38%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Brash
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      82%·86.2 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      9%·95.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Speier
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 2-1

Aug 26SDSD6@SEASEA9
Aug 27SDSD7@SEASEA6
Aug 27SDSD3@SEASEA4today

Season series

SEA wins series 5-1

May 17SEASEA5@SDSD1
May 18SEASEA4@SDSD1
May 18SEASEA6@SDSD1
Aug 26SDSD6@SEASEA9
Aug 27SDSD7@SEASEA6
Aug 27SDSD3@SEASEA4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 9th Inning

SDSD
J. Cronenworth

J. Cronenworth

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

Y. Darvish

Y. Darvish

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
V. Robles

V. Robles

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat SD 4-3.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 77% WP

Raley · doubled to right, Suárez scored.

SEABottom 4th Inning · 0-4
+9pp→ 94% WP

Suárez homered to left center (382 feet), Rodríguez scored and Naylor scored.

SEATop 9th Inning · 3-4
+11pp→ 100% WP

Laureano · grounded out to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000020013
SEA01030000—4

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

3

Runs

4

8

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

10

TB

13

0

HR

1

1

BB

3

9

K

5

16

LOB

9

Win probability

SEA vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

SD won 1 · SEA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Raley 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Sheets 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Jr. 1

SD
SEA

Play-by-play · 546 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  2. T9

    Laureano grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

    +11pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  4. T9

    Tatis Jr. stole third.

    ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  5. T9

    Tatis Jr. stole third.

    ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  7. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Ramon Laureano

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  8. T9

    ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  9. T9

    Tatis Jr. doubled to center, Cronenworth scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

    −7pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  14. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    · ·

    SD 3·SEA 4

  15. T9

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  16. T9

    Wagner lined out to left.

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

    +4pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  19. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Will Wagner

    · ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  20. T9

    Wagner hit for Fermin

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  21. T9

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  22. T9

    Cronenworth doubled to left.

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

    −5pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 2·SEA 4

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SEA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    50.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.7%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.