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FINAL+6LAD
SD

SD

69-54

0
6
LAD

LAD

70-53

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,606 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SD 0 · LAD 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000000000
LAD320010006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 16·Final/SeriesLAD win series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off San Diego Padres, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD69-54
0
6
LAD70-53
SD69-54·LAD70-53
SD

SD

69-54

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-33020011
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-44000000
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33000002
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
0-22000000
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-33000000
R. O'HearnR. O'HearnRF
0-11000001
Team6-3030060036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
3.1253620
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.2111001
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
1.0100010
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
2.0100010
Team8.0564641
LAD

LAD

70-53

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-22210020
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33100010
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-22200020
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44010000
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33112100
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000010
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
2-44022001
SPRINT2622
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-44000003
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-33000000
Team5-2828654164
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SnellB. Snell★SP
6.0500230
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.1100120
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2000010
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0000000
Team9.0600360

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAD

  • A. Banda
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      57%·86.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      29%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

0

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 6-1

Jun 17SDSD3@LADLAD6
Jun 18SDSD6@LADLAD8
Jun 19SDSD3@LADLAD4
Jun 20SDSD5@LADLAD3
Aug 16SDSD2@LADLAD3
Aug 17SDSD0@LADLAD6today
Aug 17SDSD4@LADLAD5

Season series

LAD lead series 7-2

Jun 10LADLAD8@SDSD7
Jun 11LADLAD1@SDSD11
Jun 11LADLAD5@SDSD2
Jun 17SDSD3@LADLAD6
Jun 18SDSD6@LADLAD8
Jun 19SDSD3@LADLAD4
Jun 20SDSD5@LADLAD3
Aug 16SDSD2@LADLAD3
Aug 17SDSD0@LADLAD6today
Aug 17SDSD4@LADLAD5
Aug 23LADLAD1@SDSD2
Aug 24LADLAD1@SDSD5
Aug 24LADLAD8@SDSD2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 6 BB

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SD 6-0.

Win probability

LAD vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 76% WP

Ohtani · walked.

LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+9pp→ 90% WP

Conforto · singled to right, Betts scored and Smith scored, Pages to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000000000
LAD32001000—6

Period scoring

SD won 0 · LAD won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Conforto 2

0
2

Inn 2

Freeman 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SD
LAD

Play-by-play · 540 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  2. T9

    Laureano flied out to right.

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  9. T9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Ramon Laureano

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  10. T9

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  11. T9

    Bogaerts grounded out to third.

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  18. T9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  19. T9

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  20. T9

    Merrill lined out to right.

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  25. T9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Jackson Merrill

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  26. T9

    Dreyer relieved Banda

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

  27. T9

    Call in left field.

    SD 0·LAD 6

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SD 0·LAD 6

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SD 0·LAD 6

  30. B8

    ·

    SD 0·LAD 6

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

0

Runs

6

6

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

8

TB

8

0

HR

1

3

BB

6

6

K

4

12

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 16, 25sim 97
    252
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 97
    253
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    223
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 96
    22
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    192
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    224
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

LAD vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    51.3%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.4%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.