• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1LAD
SD

SD

69-53

2
3
LAD

LAD

69-53

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,119 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SD 2 · LAD 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0100000102
LAD002000103

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 15·Final/SeriesLAD win series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off San Diego Padres, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD69-53
2
3
LAD69-53
SD69-53·LAD69-53
SD

SD

69-53

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-33000010
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-33001001
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-44000001
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.688
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT2872
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
0-11100011
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-22000000
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-22010000
SPRINT26.838
R. O'HearnR. O'HearnRF
0-11000000
Team4-2828242125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. PeraltaW. Peralta★RP
1.1000020
R. VasquezR. VasquezSP
3.2322140
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.1111221
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
0.2000110
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000020
Team8.04334111
LAD

LAD

69-53

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-33001011
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33001000
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-44000003
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-22000012
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33111101
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-22000011
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-22110001
SPRINT2622
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-33110002
SPRINT26.941
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-33010000
Team4-25253431411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. KershawC. Kershaw★SP
6.0211131
B. CaspariusB. CaspariusRP
1.0100000
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.2011100
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.1000000
A. DiazA. DiazRP
0.2100020
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
0.1000000
Team9.0422251

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • Y. Matsui
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      62%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·85.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.9 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • J. Dreyer
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      63%·93.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      38%·88.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 6-1

Jun 17SDSD3@LADLAD6
Jun 18SDSD6@LADLAD8
Jun 19SDSD3@LADLAD4
Jun 20SDSD5@LADLAD3
Aug 16SDSD2@LADLAD3today
Aug 17SDSD0@LADLAD6
Aug 17SDSD4@LADLAD5

Season series

LAD lead series 6-2

Jun 10LADLAD8@SDSD7
Jun 11LADLAD1@SDSD11
Jun 11LADLAD5@SDSD2
Jun 17SDSD3@LADLAD6
Jun 18SDSD6@LADLAD8
Jun 19SDSD3@LADLAD4
Jun 20SDSD5@LADLAD3
Aug 16SDSD2@LADLAD3today
Aug 17SDSD0@LADLAD6
Aug 17SDSD4@LADLAD5
Aug 23LADLAD1@SDSD2
Aug 24LADLAD1@SDSD5
Aug 24LADLAD8@SDSD2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 2nd Inning

SDSD
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

C. Kershaw

C. Kershaw

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SD 3-2.

Win probability

LAD vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 43% WP

Laureano · homered to left (400 feet).

SDTop 8th Inning · 1-3
+10pp→ 27% WP

Cronenworth · hit by pitch, Iglesias to second.

LADBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+10pp→ 87% WP

Ohtani · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0100000102
LAD00200010—3

Period scoring

SD won 2 · LAD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Laureano 1

0
2

Inn 3

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Hern 1

1
0

Inn 8

Arraez 1

0

Inn 9

SD
LAD

Play-by-play · 519 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  2. T9

    O'Hearn flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  6. T9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  7. T9

    Dreyer relieved Díaz

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  8. T9

    O'Hearn hit for Iglesias

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  9. T9

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  10. T9

    Laureano struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

    +9pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  18. T9

    Alexis Diaz pitches to Ramon Laureano

    · ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  19. T9

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  20. T9

    Merrill singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

    −7pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

  30. T9

    Alexis Diaz pitches to Jackson Merrill

    ·

    SD 2·LAD 3

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

2

Runs

3

4

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

8

TB

7

1

HR

1

2

BB

4

5

K

11

8

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAD vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    50.2%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 98
    223
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 97
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    224
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    21
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    253
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    124
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs