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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

67-49

3
2
TEX

TEX

60-58

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
38,471 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 3 · TEX 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000003003
TEX1000000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 9·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryson Stott

Bryson Stott

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI67-49
3
2
TEX60-58
PHI67-49·TEX60-58
PHI

PHI

67-49

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000003
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000011
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000002
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-33010000
SPRINT28.381
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.175
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-33110010
SPRINT27.662
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
2-44122001
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-44000001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-33021001
SPRINT28.688
Team7-32323730211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
6.0711140
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100000
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0111011
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000010
Team9.0922161
TEX

TEX

60-58

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.278
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-44221102
SPRINT24.96
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-44011000
SPRINT2872
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-44000001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.735
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-33010000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-22000011
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-33010001
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
0-11000001
J. SmithJ. Smith2B
0-11000000
Team9-3434292116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
6.2633180
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
0.2100110
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.2000020
Team9.07332110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    82 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.0 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      39%·85.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      50%·98.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      38%·101.3 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      6%·89.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Banks
    15 pitches·7% CSW
    • SL
      53%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·81.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Strahm
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·82.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      7%·88.0 mph·0% whiff

TEX

  • J. deGrom
    99 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·98.3 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      37%·92.1 mph·12% whiff
    • CH
      15%·90.8 mph·56% whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.5 mph·75% whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      45%·85.0 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      36%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·84.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

Aug 9PHIPHI9@TEXTEX1
Aug 9PHIPHI3@TEXTEX2today
Aug 10PHIPHI4@TEXTEX2

Season series

PHI leads series 2-0

Aug 9PHIPHI9@TEXTEX1
Aug 9PHIPHI3@TEXTEX2today
Aug 10PHIPHI4@TEXTEX2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 35pp · Top 7th Inning

PHIPHI
B. Stott

B. Stott

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat TEX 3-2. Kepler's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (35pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 7th Inning · 2-1
+35pp→ 69% WP

Kepler · doubled to right, Bader scored and Marsh scored.

TEXBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+21pp→ 34% WP

Seager · homered to left center (406 feet).

PHIBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+9pp→ 89% WP

A. Garc · ía grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000003003
TEX1000000102

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · TEX won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Langford 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Kepler 2

0
1

Inn 8

Seager 1

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
TEX

Play-by-play · 528 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  2. B9

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  3. B9

    Smith grounded out to second.

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  8. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Josh Smith

    · ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  9. B9

    Smith hit for Heim

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  10. B9

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  11. B9

    Pederson struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

    −7pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  17. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Joc Pederson

    · ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  18. B9

    Pederson hit for Burger

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  19. B9

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  20. B9

    A. García grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

    −9pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  28. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  29. B9

    Duran relieved Strahm

    · ·

    PHI 3·TEX 2

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 3·TEX 2

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

3

Runs

2

7

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

9

TB

14

0

HR

1

2

BB

1

11

K

6

9

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 16, 25sim 98
    252
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 97
    224
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    253
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 96
    22
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    223
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TEX vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    50.4%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.5%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.0%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.