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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7NYY
NYY

NYY

86-67

7
0
BAL

BAL

72-81

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
25,253 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 7 · BAL 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY2000104007
BAL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 20, 25sim 100
    106
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 97
    133
    18(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 96
    102
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    21
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 96
    107
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    220
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Sep 18·Final/SeriesNYY win series 4-3

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Austin Wells

Austin Wells

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo

3B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY86-67
7
0
BAL72-81
NYY86-67·BAL72-81
NYY

NYY

86-67

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
2-55221000
SPRINT24.74
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-22001022
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-33200021
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44012002
SPRINT23.81
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
1-22012001
SPRINT28.278
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-33000012
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44110002
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-22110020
A. WellsA. Wells★C
2-33121010
SPRINT25.18
J. DominguezJ. DominguezLF
0-11000000
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.2B
1-22010001
Team9-31317970811
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
7.03001130
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
2.0000120
Team9.03002150
BAL

BAL

72-81

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
1-44010003
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
0-44000003
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-33000011
SPRINT27.662
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-33000012
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010002
SPRINT2872
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33000001
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
0-33000001
L. VazquezL. Vazquez★SS
0-33000002
Team3-30300300215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PovichC. Povich★SP
5.0533450
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0100110
C. McDermottC. McDermottSP
0.1244300
J. CastilloJ. CastilloRP
1.2100030
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
1.0000020
Team9.09778110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • M. Fried
    87 pitches·46% CSW
    • SI
      23%·95.0 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      21%·88.2 mph·83% whiff
    • CU
      16%·74.4 mph·63% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.2 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      13%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      31%·89.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.7 mph·100% whiff

BAL

  • C. Povich
    89 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      35%·91.5 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      17%·78.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      11%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.4 mph·25% whiff
  • C. McDermott
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      50%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      42%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Castillo
    23 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      35%·93.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.9 mph·33% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      38%·90.2 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Strowd
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      45%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.8 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·85.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

7

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 4-3

Apr 28NYYNYY3@BALBAL4
Apr 29NYYNYY15@BALBAL3
Apr 30NYYNYY4@BALBAL5
Sep 18NYYNYY7@BALBAL0today
Sep 19NYYNYY2@BALBAL4
Sep 20NYYNYY6@BALBAL1
Sep 21NYYNYY7@BALBAL1

Season series

NYY lead series 4-3

Apr 28NYYNYY3@BALBAL4
Apr 29NYYNYY15@BALBAL3
Apr 30NYYNYY4@BALBAL5
Jun 20BALBAL5@NYYNYY3
Jun 21BALBAL0@NYYNYY9
Jun 22BALBAL2@NYYNYY4
Sep 18NYYNYY7@BALBAL0today
Sep 19NYYNYY2@BALBAL4
Sep 20NYYNYY6@BALBAL1
Sep 21NYYNYY7@BALBAL1
Sep 26BALBAL4@NYYNYY8
Sep 27BALBAL1@NYYNYY6
Sep 28BALBAL2@NYYNYY3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 1st Inning

NYYNYY
A. Wells

A. Wells

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 13 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

BALBAL
C. Mayo

C. Mayo

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Povich

C. Povich

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

NYY beat BAL 7-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 79% WP

Rosario · doubled to left, Bellinger scored and Goldschmidt scored.

NYYTop 7th Inning · 3-0
+7pp→ 92% WP

Caballero · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY2000104007
BAL0000000000

Period scoring

NYY won 3 · BAL won 0

2
0

Inn 1

Rosario 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Wells 1

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Stanton 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

NYY
BAL

Play-by-play · 553 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  3. B9

    J. Jackson grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  9. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  10. B9

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  11. B9

    O'Neill walked.

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  18. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Tyler O'Neill

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  19. B9

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  20. B9

    Henderson grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  26. B9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  27. B9

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  28. B9

    Westburg struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 7·BAL 0

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

7

Runs

0

9

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

13

TB

3

0

HR

0

8

BB

2

11

K

15

13

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jorge MateoATL · SS
    SPRINT3099
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    48.4%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.4%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.