MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6NYM

WSH

62-92

612

NYM

80-74

Citi Field · Queens, New York

39,484 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
61.6%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.6%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.2%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.7low
Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.2± 1.3high
Daylen LileWSH
1.2± 1.3high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Bo BichetteNYM
2.3± 2.6high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.1± 2.6high
James WoodWSH
2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.8high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.9± 2.0high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Nolan McLeanNYM
2.7± 2.9low
David PetersonNYM
2.6± 3.7low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

NYM

.745

OPS

◀

.717

.665

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.294

5.44

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

4.66

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.85

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.27

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

WSH 6 · NYM 12 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	6
NYM	1	0	1	6	0	0	1	3	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. WoodRF	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. AbramsSS	.264	4	2	2	3	1	0	1
J. BellDH	.232	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.286	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.213	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. DeJong3B	.239	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. AlfaroC	.259	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.234	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
R. Hassell IIICF	.237	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. AdamsC	.191	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.197	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	6	8	5	1	2	10

Player

AVG

RBI

.254

.264

.232

.286

.255

.213

.239

.259

.234

.237

.191

.197

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. AlvarezRP	3.1	7	6	4	1	4	81
P. PoulinRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	1	12
S. LaoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
J. RutledgeRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	18
M. ThompsonRP	1.0	2	3	3	3	2	29
Team	8.0	13	12	10	5	9	168

Player

3.1

0.2

0.2

1.0

1.1

1.0

Team

8.0

168

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. LindorSS	.268	4	4	3	1	0	1	0
J. SotoLF	.265	3	2	2	3	1	2	1
P. Alonso1B	.272	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
M. Vientos1B	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NimmoRF	.262	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
S. MarteRF	.277	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.254	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.255	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
J. SiriLF	.063	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. McNeil2B	.253	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. AcunaCF	.234	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
C. MullinsCF	.189	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	12	13	11	1	5	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. SproatSP	4.0	4	4	4	2	5	71
H. BrazobanRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	11
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
R. StanekRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
R. HelsleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
C. DevenskiRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	18
Team	9.0	8	6	6	2	10	143

Team

WSH

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.