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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TB
TOR

TOR

89-63

1
2
TB

TB

74-78

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
8,959 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TOR 1 · TB 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0001000001
TB100000102

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesTB wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Toronto Blue Jays, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Ernie Clement

Ernie Clement

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR89-63
1
2
TB74-78
TOR89-63·TB74-78
TOR

TOR

89-63

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.920
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-22110010
SPRINT26.838
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-44000000
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-33001000
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-44000002
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-33020000
SPRINT27.354
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-33000000
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-33000001
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-22000000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
0-11000000
SPRINT27.148
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-11000001
Team4-3030141016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
6.0611260
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0211100
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0000000
Team8.0822360
TB

TB

74-78

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
3-44131000
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-22021020
SPRINT25.716
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-33000002
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
0-44000003
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.428
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-44000000
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-33010000
SPRINT26.225
BB. Seymour★1B
0-33000000
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
1-22110010
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11000000
Team8-3030282036
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
I. SeymourI. Seymour★RP
7.0410130
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0000020
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000010
Team9.0410160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    95 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      51%·95.1 mph·15% whiff
    • FS
      40%·84.8 mph·42% whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.9 mph·67% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • CU
      40%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.5 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • I. Seymour
    100 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      31%·91.2 mph·5% whiff
    • FC
      28%·88.7 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      26%·83.6 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      8%·75.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • CH
      38%·88.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      38%·94.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.1 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.6 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      60%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

8

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

TB wins series 5-2

May 23TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 24TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 25TORTOR0@TBTB13
Sep 15TORTOR2@TBTB1
Sep 16TORTOR6@TBTB5
Sep 17TORTOR1@TBTB2today
Sep 18TORTOR0@TBTB4

Season series

TB leads series 6-3

May 13TBTB11@TORTOR9
May 14TBTB1@TORTOR3
May 15TBTB8@TORTOR3
May 23TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 24TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 25TORTOR0@TBTB13
Sep 15TORTOR2@TBTB1
Sep 16TORTOR6@TBTB5
Sep 17TORTOR1@TBTB2today
Sep 18TORTOR0@TBTB4
Sep 26TBTB2@TORTOR4
Sep 27TBTB1@TORTOR5
Sep 28TBTB4@TORTOR13

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 7th Inning

TORTOR
E. Clement

E. Clement

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

I. Seymour

I. Seymour

RP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat TOR 2-1. Simpson's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

TB vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 52% WP

Simpson · doubled to left.

TORTop 4th Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 59% WP

Guerrero Jr. · grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Schneider safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Williams, Schneider safe at third on error.

TBBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+20pp→ 77% WP

Simpson · singled to center, Williams scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0001000001
TB10000010—2

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · TB won 2

0
1

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Kirk 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Simpson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
TB

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  2. T9

    France struck out looking.

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  8. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Ty France

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  9. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  10. T9

    Kirk grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

    +7pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  15. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  16. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  17. T9

    Guerrero Jr. popped out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

    +8pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  19. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  20. T9

    Fairbanks relieved Uceta

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 1·TB 2

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 1·TB 2

  23. B8

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  24. B8

    Pereira flied out to right.

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  25. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  28. B8

    Tommy Nance pitches to Everson Pereira

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  29. B8

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

  30. B8

    Gray flied out to right.

    ·

    TOR 1·TB 2

    −1pp

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

TB

Home

1

Runs

2

4

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

5

TB

12

0

HR

0

1

BB

3

6

K

6

11

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.2± 2.5low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.9± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    2.1± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    41.1%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.1%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.8%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 18, 25sim 96
    140
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 96
    142
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 93
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 91
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 91
    83
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 90
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs