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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
BOS

BOS

75-60

3
2
BAL

BAL

60-74

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
15,374 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 3 · BAL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS1001000103
BAL0010100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 27, 25sim 98
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 96
    140
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    25
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 95
    142
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    143
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 94
    163
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Aug 28·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Rob Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder

DH

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Alex Jackson

Alex Jackson

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS75-60
3
2
BAL60-74
BOS75-60·BAL60-74
BOS

BOS

75-60

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-33120011
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000001
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44111100
SPRINT27.969
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-44011000
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
2-44121101
SPRINT26.326
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
0-44000001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-44000002
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.790
J. GarciaJ. Garcia★RF
1-33010001
Team8-3434383218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
6.0622071
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.0100100
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0100110
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0100000
Team9.0922281
BAL

BAL

60-74

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-55020000
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-55021001
SPRINT26.530
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-33000001
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
1-44010001
E. RiveraE. Rivera★3B
2-44020001
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33000012
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000000
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
1-33010011
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
1-33211100
D. BeaversD. BeaversRF
0-11000001
Team9-3434292128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PovichC. Povich★SP
5.0722052
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
2.0000020
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0111110
S. DubinS. DubinRP
1.0000000
Team9.0833182

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    98 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      33%·89.5 mph·21% whiff
    • ST
      27%·82.2 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.0 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      65%·96.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hicks
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      80%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·83.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      7%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • S. Matz
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      42%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.3 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • C. Povich
    81 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      52%·91.8 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      17%·79.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      15%·82.9 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.3 mph·25% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      39%·95.7 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      22%·85.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • K. Strowd
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • SI
      58%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      11%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·97.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dubin
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      56%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      22%·80.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 6-1

Mar 31BOSBOS5@BALBAL8
Apr 2BOSBOS3@BALBAL0
Apr 3BOSBOS8@BALBAL4
Aug 25BOSBOS4@BALBAL3
Aug 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL0
Aug 27BOSBOS3@BALBAL2
Aug 28BOSBOS3@BALBAL2today

Season series

BOS wins series 8-5

Mar 31BOSBOS5@BALBAL8
Apr 2BOSBOS3@BALBAL0
Apr 3BOSBOS8@BALBAL4
May 22BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 23BALBAL5@BOSBOS19
May 23BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 24BALBAL5@BOSBOS6
May 24BALBAL2@BOSBOS1
May 25BALBAL5@BOSBOS1
Aug 18BALBAL6@BOSBOS3
Aug 19BALBAL4@BOSBOS3
Aug 25BOSBOS4@BALBAL3
Aug 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL0
Aug 27BOSBOS3@BALBAL2
Aug 28BOSBOS3@BALBAL2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 9th Inning

BOSBOS
R. Refsnyder

R. Refsnyder

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 6 H

BALBAL
A. Jackson

A. Jackson

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

C. Povich

C. Povich

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 7 H

How it ended

BOS beat BAL 3-2. Carlson's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+22pp→ 67% WP

J. Jackson · doubled to left, A. Jackson scored, Holliday to third.

BOSTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+23pp→ 73% WP

Gonz · ález singled to left, Anthony scored.

BALBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+25pp→ 42% WP

Carlson · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS1001000103
BAL0010100002

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · BAL won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Story 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Jackson 1

1
0

Inn 4

Refsnyder 1

0
1

Inn 5

Jackson 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Gonz 1

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
BAL

Play-by-play · 545 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  3. B9

    J. Jackson flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

    −10pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  7. B9

    Steven Matz pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  9. B9

    Holliday lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

    −12pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  12. B9

    Steven Matz pitches to Jackson Holliday

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  13. B9

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  14. B9

    A. Jackson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Carlson out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

    −21pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  17. B9

    Steven Matz pitches to Alex Jackson

    · ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  18. B9

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  19. B9

    Carlson doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

    +25pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  25. B9

    Steven Matz pitches to Dylan Carlson

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  26. B9

    Matz relieved Whitlock

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  29. T9

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

  30. T9

    Rafaela grounded out to second.

    ·

    BOS 3·BAL 2

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

3

Runs

2

8

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

15

TB

15

2

HR

1

1

BB

2

8

K

8

14

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 9 players in cohort
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    42.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    39.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.5%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.