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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TEX
TEX

TEX

79-70

3
2
NYM

NYM

76-73

Citi Field · Queens, New York
41,752 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 3 · NYM 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0000000213
NYM0000101002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 98
    163
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    160
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 96
    162
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    132
    21(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    164
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    121
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 13·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into New York Mets and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Rowdy Tellez

Rowdy Tellez

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Ronny Mauricio

Ronny Mauricio

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX79-70
3
2
NYM76-73
TEX79-70·NYM76-73
TEX

TEX

79-70

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT27.354
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-55121000
SPRINT2872
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-44001001
SPRINT25.716
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44010002
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-33000011
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-22010000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-44010000
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
2-44020000
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
1-33010000
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000001
R. TellezR. Tellez1B
1-11011000
Team11-35353113016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
4.1610250
C. WinnC. WinnRP
0.2100020
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.1111011
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.1100110
P. MatonP. MatonRP
0.2100020
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
0.2100020
Team9.011213131
NYM

NYM

76-73

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-55121101
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-55020001
SPRINT25.29
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.513
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-55020002
SPRINT28.278
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-22010001
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-33000001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-22000020
J. SiriJ. Siri★LF
0-33000003
R. MauricioR. MauricioSS
1-11010000
B. BatyB. Baty3B
1-22010001
C. MullinsC. MullinsCF
0-11000001
Team11-373721111313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SproatB. Sproat★SP
6.0600030
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0100010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.2121010
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.1311110
Team9.01132160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • P. Corbin
    85 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      42%·88.3 mph·39% whiff
    • SL
      31%·81.3 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      6%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Milner
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      28%·88.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      28%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FS
      36%·89.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      27%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.5 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Winn
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      53%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • P. Maton
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • CU
      47%·76.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      33%·90.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.5 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • B. Sproat
    70 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      36%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      3%·88.8 mph·— whiff
  • E. Diaz
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      48%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • ST
      38%·81.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      23%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      82%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·73.9 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

11

3

Runs

2

2

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Sep 12TEXTEX8@NYMNYM3
Sep 13TEXTEX3@NYMNYM2today
Sep 14TEXTEX2@NYMNYM5

Season series

TEX leads series 2-0

Sep 12TEXTEX8@NYMNYM3
Sep 13TEXTEX3@NYMNYM2today
Sep 14TEXTEX2@NYMNYM5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 36pp · Top 9th Inning

TEXTEX
R. Tellez

R. Tellez

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
R. Mauricio

R. Mauricio

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 6 H

How it ended

TEX beat NYM 3-2. Langford's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 8th Inning · 2-2
+26pp→ 47% WP

Tellez · hit a ground rule double, Langford scored, Jung to third.

TEXTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+36pp→ 80% WP

Langford · singled to center, Harris scored.

TEXBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 100% WP

Nimmo · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0000000213
NYM0000101002

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · NYM won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Alonso 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Soto 1

2
0

Inn 8

Pederson 1

1
0

Inn 9

Langford 1

TEX
NYM

Play-by-play · 602 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  3. B9

    Nimmo struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

    −19pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  8. B9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  9. B9

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  10. B9

    Mauricio singled to right, J. Soto to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

    +8pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  15. B9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Ronny Mauricio

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  16. B9

    Mauricio hit for Acuña

    ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  17. B9

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  18. B9

    Alonso struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

    −14pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  26. B9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Pete Alonso

    · ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  27. B9

    Armstrong relieved Maton

    ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  28. B9

    ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

  29. B9

    J. Soto singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

    +12pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·NYM 2

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

3

Runs

2

11

Hits

11

2

Errors

1

15

TB

14

0

HR

1

1

BB

3

6

K

13

15

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    44.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.3%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.8%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.