MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

BOS

74-60

BAL

60-73

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

16,790 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
43.6%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.8%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.3%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.7low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.1high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
3.0± 3.1high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.2± 2.4high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.1± 2.4high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 0.9high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

BAL

.698

OPS

.717

▶

.728

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.03

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.70

3.91

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.59

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 3 · BAL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.286	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
A. Bregman3B	.298	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. StorySS	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DuranLF	.258	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.249	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. LoweDH	.296	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.226	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.194	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. HamiltonSS	.207	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
R. Gonzalez1B	.283	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	2	1	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.286

.298

.257

.258

.249

.296

.226

.194

.207

.283

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. BelloSP	6.2	5	2	1	1	6	94
J. WilsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. WeissertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	24
Team	9.0	5	2	1	1	10	127

Player

6.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

127

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Holliday2B	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jackson2B	.324	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. HendersonSS	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. CowserRF	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. BasalloC	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Mayo3B	.191	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
D. BeaversRF	.344	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
D. CarlsonLF	.210	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. Rivera3B	.225	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	5	2	0	1	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
D. EnnsRP	2.2	2	1	1	0	3	34
R. ContrerasRP	4.1	3	0	0	1	2	71
K. AkinRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	2	26
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	7	131

Team

BOS

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.