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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4TB
TOR

TOR

89-64

0
4
TB

TB

75-78

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
8,042 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TOR 0 · TB 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000000000
TB030001004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 15, 25sim 98
    142
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 96
    141
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 96
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 93
    26
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 92
    25
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Sep 18·Final/SeriesTB wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Toronto Blue Jays, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

RF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Carson Williams

Carson Williams

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR89-64
0
4
TB75-78
TOR89-64·TB75-78
TOR

TOR

89-64

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000002
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.123
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-44000000
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-11000010
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-22000001
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-33000001
J. LoperfidoJ. LoperfidoLF
0-11000000
T. FranceT. France1B
0-11000000
Team4-2929040026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
4.1833230
E. LauerE. LauerSP
1.1311021
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.1000000
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000010
Team8.01144261
TB

TB

75-78

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
3-44032000
SPRINT29.496
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT27.148
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-33000010
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-44010001
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT2993
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-44000001
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-33110011
SPRINT27.354
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
2-44221100
BB. Seymour★1B
1-33110002
Team11-33334114126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
5.0200140
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0000010
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0000010
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0100000
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0100100
Team9.0400260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • C. Bassitt
    89 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      43%·91.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.2 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      12%·71.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      6%·72.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      1%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Lauer
    30 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      47%·91.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      20%·74.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      13%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      12%·92.8 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      38%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      38%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.5 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • S. Baz
    74 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      39%·97.3 mph·12% whiff
    • KC
      27%·84.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      20%·89.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    21 pitches·10% CSW
    • SL
      38%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      17%·89.1 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      33%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·78.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      17%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      45%·88.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      36%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

11

0

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 5-2

May 23TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 24TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 25TORTOR0@TBTB13
Sep 15TORTOR2@TBTB1
Sep 16TORTOR6@TBTB5
Sep 17TORTOR1@TBTB2
Sep 18TORTOR0@TBTB4today

Season series

TB leads series 7-3

May 13TBTB11@TORTOR9
May 14TBTB1@TORTOR3
May 15TBTB8@TORTOR3
May 23TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 24TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 25TORTOR0@TBTB13
Sep 15TORTOR2@TBTB1
Sep 16TORTOR6@TBTB5
Sep 17TORTOR1@TBTB2
Sep 18TORTOR0@TBTB4today
Sep 26TBTB2@TORTOR4
Sep 27TBTB1@TORTOR5
Sep 28TBTB4@TORTOR13

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

TORTOR
N. Lukes

N. Lukes

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

TBTB
C. Williams

C. Williams

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat TOR 4-0. Simpson's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

TB vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 54% WP

Simpson · doubled to right.

TBBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 70% WP

Simpson · singled to center, Feduccia scored and Williams scored, B. Seymour to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000000000
TB03000100—4

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · TB won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Simpson 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Williams 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
TB

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  2. T9

    Barger grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, Guerrero Jr. out at second.

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  5. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Addison Barger

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  6. T9

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  7. T9

    Guerrero Jr. reached on infield single to third, Lukes to second.

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

    −2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  10. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    · ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  11. T9

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  12. T9

    Lukes walked.

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

    −1pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  21. T9

    Bryan Baker pitches to Nathan Lukes

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  22. T9

    Fortes catching.

    TOR 0·TB 4

  23. T9

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  24. T9

    Springer grounded out to first.

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

    +0.9pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 0·TB 4

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

TB

Home

0

Runs

4

4

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

5

TB

16

0

HR

1

2

BB

2

6

K

6

9

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.2± 2.5low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.9± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    2.1± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    42.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.4%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.1%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.