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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

88-62

2
1
TB

TB

73-77

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
8,972 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 2 · TB 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
TOR000000010012
TB100000000001

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 18, 25sim 98
    140
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 96
    141
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 95
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 93
    141
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 93
    26
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 15·Final/SeriesTB wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

0.800OPS

5-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
TOR88-62
2
1
TB73-77
TOR88-62·TB73-77
TOR

TOR

88-62

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-55021002
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-55010001
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-44000000
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-44010001
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-33010002
SPRINT26.838
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44210001
SPRINT27.354
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-33000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33001000
A. KirkA. KirkC
0-11000001
Team6-36362620010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. YesavageT. Yesavage★SP
5.0311290
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.0000010
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0000110
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000120
B. FisherB. FisherRP
2.0100040
Team11.04114180
TB

TB

73-77

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-55110002
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
3-33031020
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-55000004
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000012
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-55000003
SPRINT27.251
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
0-33000011
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-44000003
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-33000001
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-33000001
R. PalaciosR. Palacios2B
0-11000001
Team4-36361410418
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BoyleJ. Boyle★SP
6.0400050
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0000020
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0111010
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000000
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0000020
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.0110000
Team11.06210100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • T. Yesavage
    69 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.6 mph·31% whiff
    • FS
      28%·84.0 mph·79% whiff
    • SL
      26%·88.0 mph·44% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    27 pitches·37% CSW
    • SL
      48%·87.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      11%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·93.2 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      44%·86.6 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      39%·94.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      17%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Varland
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      47%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      20%·88.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·93.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·93.5 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Little
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • KC
      57%·86.5 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      36%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      15%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.2 mph·— whiff

TB

  • J. Boyle
    78 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      40%·91.1 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      38%·98.2 mph·30% whiff
    • FS
      22%·93.5 mph·22% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      31%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      19%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      38%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      38%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·90.6 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      42%·90.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·83.8 mph·— whiff
  • K. Kelly
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      58%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • ST
      78%·88.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      11%·92.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      11%·97.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

4

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 5-2

May 23TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 24TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 25TORTOR0@TBTB13
Sep 15TORTOR2@TBTB1today
Sep 16TORTOR6@TBTB5
Sep 17TORTOR1@TBTB2
Sep 18TORTOR0@TBTB4

Season series

TB leads series 5-2

May 13TBTB11@TORTOR9
May 14TBTB1@TORTOR3
May 15TBTB8@TORTOR3
May 23TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 24TORTOR1@TBTB3
May 25TORTOR0@TBTB13
Sep 15TORTOR2@TBTB1today
Sep 16TORTOR6@TBTB5
Sep 17TORTOR1@TBTB2
Sep 18TORTOR0@TBTB4
Sep 26TBTB2@TORTOR4
Sep 27TBTB1@TORTOR5
Sep 28TBTB4@TORTOR13

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 11th Inning

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 0.800 OPS

T. Yesavage

T. Yesavage

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 2.000 OPS

J. Boyle

J. Boyle

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

TOR beat TB 2-1. Springer's play in the top 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

TB vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 10th Inning · 1-1
+19pp→ 36% WP

Palacios · struck out swinging.

TORTop 11th Inning · 2-1
+30pp→ 56% WP

Springer · singled to left, Clement scored.

TORBottom 11th Inning · 2-1
+27pp→ 81% WP

Caminero · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
TOR000000010012
TB100000000001

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · TB won 1

0
1

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Gim 1

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

1
0

Inn 11

Springer 1

TOR
TB

Play-by-play · 599 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    TOR 2·TB 1

  2. B11

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  3. B11

    J. Lowe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

    −20pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  5. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  6. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  7. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  8. B11

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Josh Lowe

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  9. B11

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  10. B11

    Caminero struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

    −27pp

  11. B11

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  12. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  13. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  14. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  15. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  16. B11

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Junior Caminero

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  17. B11

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  18. B11

    B. Lowe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

    −22pp

  19. B11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  20. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  21. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  22. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  23. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  24. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  25. B11

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Brandon Lowe

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  26. B11

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  27. B11

    Díaz reached on infield single to third, Simpson to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

    +20pp

  28. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  29. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

  30. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 2·TB 1

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

TB

Home

2

Runs

1

6

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

8

TB

5

0

HR

0

0

BB

4

10

K

18

12

LOB

20

Player projections

TB vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.2± 2.5low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.9± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    2.1± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    43.1%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.3%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.7%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993