• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 1
  • WNBAHalftime
    SEA 36@TOR 37
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2BAL
BAL

BAL

64-76

7
5
SD

SD

76-64

Petco Park · San Diego, California
35,019 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 7 · SD 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL1060000007
SD0000041005

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    112
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 95
    213
    16(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    265
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 94
    287
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 31, 25sim 94
    304
    10(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 94
    286
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 7–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday

2B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL64-76
7
5
SD76-64
BAL64-76·SD76-64
BAL

BAL

64-76

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-44121111
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-44000011
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
1-44111011
E. RiveraE. Rivera★3B
2-55120001
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-33000021
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-55113103
SPRINT28.175
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44111111
SPRINT2872
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
1-44111102
L. VazquezL. Vazquez★SS
0-22100021
Team8-35357874812
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PovichC. Povich★SP
5.0744331
K. AkinK. AkinRP
2.0211021
S. DubinS. DubinRP
1.0100030
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000020
Team9.010553102
SD

SD

76-64

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-55111102
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-55110000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44112101
SPRINT24.32
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-22120020
SPRINT2872
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-33000011
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-44011001
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
1-33010001
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
2-33020001
G. SheetsG. Sheets1B
0-11000001
W. WagnerW. Wagner3B
0-11000001
Team10-353551042310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CortesN. Cortes★SP
2.1766324
S. ReynoldsS. ReynoldsRP
2.2111430
K. HartK. HartRP
1.0000010
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0000120
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000030
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000010
Team9.08778124

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • C. Povich
    85 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      51%·92.1 mph·16% whiff
    • SI
      25%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • K. Akin
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      29%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
  • S. Dubin
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • CH
      38%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FS
      29%·90.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.9 mph·— whiff

SD

  • N. Cortes
    57 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      35%·89.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      30%·86.9 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      19%·78.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      16%·81.5 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Reynolds
    56 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      61%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      61%·97.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      22%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.7 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Hart
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Suarez
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·89.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Miller
    9 pitches·100% CSW
    • SL
      100%·87.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

7

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 1BALBAL4@SDSD3
Sep 3BALBAL6@SDSD2
Sep 3BALBAL7@SDSD5today

Season series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 1BALBAL4@SDSD3
Sep 3BALBAL6@SDSD2
Sep 3BALBAL7@SDSD5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 3rd Inning

BALBAL
J. Holliday

J. Holliday

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

C. Povich

C. Povich

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

SDSD
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

S. Reynolds

S. Reynolds

RP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

How it ended

BAL beat SD 7-5. Cowser's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+26pp→ 81% WP

Cowser · homered to right center (420 feet), Mountcastle scored and Rivera scored.

BALBottom 6th Inning · 7-4
+14pp→ 83% WP

Iglesias · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Laureano scored, Cronenworth out at second, Merrill to third.

SDBottom 7th Inning · 7-5
+11pp→ 26% WP

Tatis Jr. · homered to center (414 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL1060000007
SD0000041005

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · SD won 2

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

6
0

Inn 3

Cowser 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
4

Inn 6

Machado 2

0
1

Inn 7

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
SD

Play-by-play · 611 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 7·SD 5

  2. B9

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  3. B9

    Arraez grounded out to second.

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  9. B9

    Yennier Cano pitches to Luis Arraez

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  10. B9

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  11. B9

    Tatis Jr. struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  17. B9

    Yennier Cano pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  18. B9

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  19. B9

    Wagner struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

    −4pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  24. B9

    Yennier Cano pitches to Will Wagner

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  25. B9

    Cano relieved Dubin

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  26. B9

    Wagner hit for Díaz

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BAL 7·SD 5

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BAL 7·SD 5

  29. T9

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

  30. T9

    Mayo struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 7·SD 5

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

7

Runs

5

8

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

20

TB

17

4

HR

2

8

BB

3

12

K

10

23

LOB

13

Player projections

SD vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    57.8%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.5%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.6%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 10 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872