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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9SEA
LAA

LAA

69-81

2
11
SEA

SEA

82-68

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
42,513 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

LAA 2 · SEA 11 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000110002
SEA2036000011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 21, 25sim 95
    264
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 95
    36
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 93
    33
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 93
    265
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 93
    261
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 92
    46
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 14·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 6-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Los Angeles Angels, 11–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Oswald Peraza

Oswald Peraza

2B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA69-81
2
11
SEA82-68
LAA69-81·SEA82-68
LAA

LAA

69-81

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-44000003
SPRINT28.688
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
0-22000001
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44000003
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000001
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
1-44111102
L. DavidsonL. Davidson★1B
0-33000003
D. GuzmanD. Guzman★SS
2-33020001
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
0-33000002
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-33000002
O. PerazaO. Peraza2B
1-11111110
SPRINT28.278
Team4-31312422118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HendricksK. Hendricks★SP
3.11099261
L. DavidsonL. Davidson★1B
1.0000010
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
0.2322110
J. UrenaJ. UrenaRP
3.0300110
Team8.0161111491
SEA

SEA

82-68

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-55110002
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-44322110
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-33222000
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-44123001
SPRINT23.81
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
3-55230000
SPRINT25.310
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-55000003
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
3-55133001
SPRINT25.920
L. RivasL. Rivas★3B
0-11000031
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-44121001
V. RoblesV. RoblesRF
1-22010000
Team16-3838111611149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
6.13220142
E. HancockE. HancockSP
1.2100020
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.0000120
Team9.04221182

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • K. Hendricks
    69 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      45%·86.1 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      36%·79.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      14%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      4%·72.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Urena
    50 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      30%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      26%·88.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.3 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      35%·82.2 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      17%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Davidson
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • EP
      100%·65.1 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • G. Kirby
    101 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      51%·96.6 mph·42% whiff
    • ST
      22%·87.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      8%·84.0 mph·67% whiff
  • E. Hancock
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      48%·95.9 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      35%·97.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      16%·89.7 mph·67% whiff
  • C. Legumina
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      40%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·81.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

16

2

Runs

11

1

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 6-0

Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA9
Sep 12LAALAA6@SEASEA7
Sep 13LAALAA1@SEASEA2
Sep 14LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Sep 14LAALAA2@SEASEA11today

Season series

SEA wins series 9-4

Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Apr 30LAALAA3@SEASEA9
Jun 7SEASEA4@LAALAA5
Jun 8SEASEA6@LAALAA8
Jun 8SEASEA3@LAALAA2
Jul 25SEASEA4@LAALAA2
Jul 26SEASEA2@LAALAA3
Jul 27SEASEA7@LAALAA2
Jul 27SEASEA1@LAALAA4
Sep 12LAALAA6@SEASEA7
Sep 13LAALAA1@SEASEA2
Sep 14LAALAA3@SEASEA5
Sep 14LAALAA2@SEASEA11today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

LAALAA
O. Peraza

O. Peraza

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 6 K · 9 ER · 10 H · 2 BB

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher14-K game

6.1 IP · 14 K · 2 ER · 3 H

How it ended

SEA beat LAA 11-2.

Win probability

SEA vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 85% WP

Raleigh · homered to left center (409 feet), Arozarena scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000110002
SEA20360000—11

Period scoring

LAA won 2 · SEA won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Raleigh 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Rodr 1

0
6

Inn 4

Naylor 2

1
0

Inn 5

Moore 1

1
0

Inn 6

Peraza 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAA
SEA

Play-by-play · 576 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  2. T9

    Moore struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  7. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Christian Moore

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  8. T9

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  9. T9

    Adell grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Peraza out at second.

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  11. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Jo Adell

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  12. T9

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  13. T9

    Ward struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  18. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Taylor Ward

    · ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  19. T9

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  20. T9

    Peraza walked.

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  27. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Oswald Peraza

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  28. T9

    Legumina relieved Hancock

    ·

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAA 2·SEA 11

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAA 2·SEA 11

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

2

Runs

11

4

Hits

16

1

Errors

0

10

TB

26

2

HR

1

1

BB

4

18

K

9

7

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

SEA vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.1%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.