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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SEA
CHW

CHW

42-72

6
8
SEA

SEA

62-53

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
32,756 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

CHW 6 · SEA 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0110003016
SEA250000108

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Chicago White Sox, 8–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Mike Tauchman

Mike Tauchman

RF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW42-72
6
8
SEA62-53
CHW42-72·SEA62-53
CHW

CHW

42-72

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
2-44122111
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44111112
SPRINT26.941
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-55011000
SPRINT26.632
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44110011
SPRINT2993
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000003
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44011002
K. TeelK. Teel★C
0-44000002
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
2-44221101
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-33110012
Team9-36366963414
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CannonJ. Cannon★SP
1.2477312
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
4.1100150
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
0.2111100
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.1100130
Team8.0788692
SEA

SEA

62-53

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44100011
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44212011
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-33213111
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-33122100
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-33001002
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-33000012
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-33100011
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-44120000
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33010011
Team7-3030878269
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
6.0522290
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0333022
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0000020
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0111211
Team9.09664143

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Wilson
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      83%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·93.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      38%·83.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      38%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·89.5 mph·— whiff

SEA

  • E. Bazardo
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Munoz
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      40%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      40%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Speier
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·83.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

6

Runs

8

1

Errors

1

Current series

SEA wins series 3-0

Aug 6CHWCHW3@SEASEA8
Aug 7CHWCHW6@SEASEA8today
Aug 7CHWCHW3@SEASEA4

Season series

SEA leads series 4-1

May 19SEASEA5@CHWCHW1
May 20SEASEA0@CHWCHW1
May 21SEASEA6@CHWCHW5
Aug 6CHWCHW3@SEASEA8
Aug 7CHWCHW6@SEASEA8today
Aug 7CHWCHW3@SEASEA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHWCHW
M. Tauchman

M. Tauchman

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

T. Alexander

T. Alexander

RP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

SEASEA
J. Naylor

J. Naylor

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat CHW 8-6.

Win probability

SEA vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 85% WP

Naylor · homered to right (450 feet), Raleigh scored.

SEABottom 2nd Inning · 1-4
+9pp→ 91% WP

Raleigh · singled to right, Canzone scored and Crawford scored, Arozarena to third.

CHWTop 9th Inning · 6-8
+11pp→ 24% WP

Tauchman · walked, Baldwin to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0110003016
SEA25000010—8

Period scoring

CHW won 2 · SEA won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Naylor 2

1
5

Inn 2

Mead 1

Rodr 3

1
0

Inn 3

Benintendi 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
1

Inn 7

Tauchman 2

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Taylor 1

CHW
SEA

Play-by-play · 613 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  2. T9

    Robert Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Baldwin out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

    +8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  4. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Luis Robert Jr.

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  5. T9

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  6. T9

    Benintendi lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

    +8pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  10. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  11. T9

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  12. T9

    Sosa struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

    +8pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  17. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  18. T9

    Julks ran for Tauchman

    ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  19. T9

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  20. T9

    Tauchman walked, Baldwin to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

    −11pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

  30. T9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Mike Tauchman

    · ·

    CHW 6·SEA 8

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

6

Runs

8

9

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

19

TB

13

3

HR

2

4

BB

6

14

K

9

20

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

SEA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    62.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.8%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 95
    153
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 95
    155
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    43
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    264
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    204
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 93
    201
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs