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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7SD
SF

SF

61-66

1
8
SD

SD

71-56

Petco Park · San Diego, California
42,589 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SF 1 · SD 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0001000001
SD114000118

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 97
    264
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 97
    233
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    33
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    151
    13(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    117
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    261
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesSD wins series 5-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off San Francisco Giants, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Gavin Sheets

Gavin Sheets

1B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF61-66
1
8
SD71-56
SF61-66·SD71-56
SF

SF

61-66

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-33000010
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33000010
W. FloresW. Flores★1B
0-44000000
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44111100
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.148
C. KossC. Koss★2B
1-44010002
T. FitzgeraldT. Fitzgerald★2B
0-22000010
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33000001
Team4-3131141136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
2.1555222
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
0.2111011
T. BeckT. BeckRP
4.0211141
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
1.0211010
Team8.01088384
SD

SD

71-56

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-44121011
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44000000
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44111100
SPRINT24.32
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
2-33222110
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-44120002
SPRINT2872
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
2-44224201
SPRINT26.735
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
0-44000001
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33000012
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-44110001
Team10-34348108438
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SearsJ. Sears★SP
6.0411121
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0000020
Y. MatsuiY. MatsuiRP
0.2000210
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.1000010
Team9.0411361

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

10

1

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 5-1

Apr 30SFSF4@SDSD7
Apr 30SFSF3@SDSD5
Aug 19SFSF4@SDSD3
Aug 20SFSF1@SDSD5
Aug 21SFSF1@SDSD8today
Aug 21SFSF4@SDSD8

Season series

SD leads series 9-3

Apr 30SFSF4@SDSD7
Apr 30SFSF3@SDSD5
Jun 3SDSD1@SFSF0
Jun 4SDSD3@SFSF2
Jun 5SDSD5@SFSF6
Jun 5SDSD2@SFSF3
Aug 12SDSD4@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD5@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD11@SFSF1
Aug 19SFSF4@SDSD3
Aug 20SFSF1@SDSD5
Aug 21SFSF1@SDSD8today
Aug 21SFSF4@SDSD8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

T. Beck

T. Beck

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

SDSD
G. Sheets

G. Sheets

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

J. Sears

J. Sears

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat SF 8-1.

Win probability

SD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 64% WP

O'Hearn · singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.

SDBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 77% WP

Sheets · homered to right (369 feet).

SDBottom 3rd Inning · 0-6
+8pp→ 96% WP

Sheets · homered to right (338 feet), O'Hearn scored and Laureano scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0001000001
SD11400011—8

Period scoring

SF won 1 · SD won 5

0
1

Inn 1

O'Hearn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Sheets 1

0
4

Inn 3

Sheets 3

1
0

Inn 4

Schmitt 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

O'Hearn 1

0
1

Inn 8

Jr. 1

0

Inn 9

SF
SD

Play-by-play · 546 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  2. T9

    Koss struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  8. T9

    David Morgan pitches to Christian Koss

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  9. T9

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  10. T9

    Lee grounded out to second.

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  16. T9

    David Morgan pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  17. T9

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  18. T9

    Schmitt grounded out to third.

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  21. T9

    David Morgan pitches to Casey Schmitt

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 1·SD 8

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 1·SD 8

  24. B8

    ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  25. B8

    Tatis Jr. singled to left, Fermin scored, Tatis Jr. out at third on runner's fielder's choice.

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 7

  29. B8

    Jose Butto pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    · ·

    SF 1·SD 8

  30. B8

    ·

    SF 1·SD 7

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

SD

Home

1

Runs

8

4

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

8

TB

24

1

HR

4

3

BB

3

6

K

8

6

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    63.0%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.5%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.8%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.