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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SD
SF

SF

61-67

4
8
SD

SD

72-56

Petco Park · San Diego, California
39,156 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SF 4 · SD 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0020020004
SD000260008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Aug 21·Final/SeriesSD wins series 5-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off San Francisco Giants, 8–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

SS

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Bryce Johnson

Bryce Johnson

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF61-67
4
8
SD72-56
SF61-67·SD72-56
SF

SF

61-67

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000001
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44111100
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-22111121
SPRINT27.457
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
0-33000002
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-33010010
C. KossC. Koss★2B
0-44000003
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
2-44120001
A. KniznerA. Knizner★C
1-33111001
W. FloresW. Flores1B
0-11000001
P. BaileyP. BaileyC
0-11000001
Team7-32324732411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. VerlanderJ. Verlander★SP
4.1676140
M. GageM. GageRP
0.2211010
J. PegueroJ. PegueroRP
2.0200110
S. BivensS. BivensRP
1.0000010
Team8.01087270
SD

SD

72-56

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-55220000
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
2-44123000
SPRINT24.32
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-22100012
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-33012000
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-33000001
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-44121001
SPRINT2872
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33100012
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-33100001
B. JohnsonB. JohnsonRF
1-11010000
Team10-32328106027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
5.0644272
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.1100110
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0000100
M. MillerM. MillerRP
0.2000010
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000020
Team9.07444112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • J. Verlander
    91 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.2 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.5 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      11%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.2 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      7%·81.6 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Peguero
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      38%·101.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·92.6 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      25%·101.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Gage
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      41%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·80.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Bivens
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • SI
      70%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.0 mph·— whiff

SD

  • D. Cease
    95 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      29%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·83.8 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      5%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      54%·98.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      29%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·83.5 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      57%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • FF
      77%·98.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      23%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Miller
    5 pitches·80% CSW
    • SL
      100%·87.7 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

4

Runs

8

2

Errors

1

Current series

SD wins series 5-1

Apr 30SFSF4@SDSD7
Apr 30SFSF3@SDSD5
Aug 19SFSF4@SDSD3
Aug 20SFSF1@SDSD5
Aug 21SFSF1@SDSD8
Aug 21SFSF4@SDSD8today

Season series

SD wins series 10-3

Apr 30SFSF4@SDSD7
Apr 30SFSF3@SDSD5
Jun 3SDSD1@SFSF0
Jun 4SDSD3@SFSF2
Jun 5SDSD5@SFSF6
Jun 5SDSD2@SFSF3
Aug 12SDSD4@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD5@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD11@SFSF1
Aug 19SFSF4@SDSD3
Aug 20SFSF1@SDSD5
Aug 21SFSF1@SDSD8
Aug 21SFSF4@SDSD8today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SFSF
W. Adames

W. Adames

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

J. Verlander

J. Verlander

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

SDSD
B. Johnson

B. Johnson

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat SF 8-4.

Win probability

SD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 50% WP

Matos · tripled to center.

SDBottom 4th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 67% WP

Machado · singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.

SDBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+15pp→ 89% WP

Fermin · hit sacrifice bunt, Laureano scored and Cronenworth scored on fielding error by right fielder Matos, Fermin to first on throwing error by third baseman Schmitt.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0020020004
SD00026000—8

Period scoring

SF won 2 · SD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Knizner 1

0
2

Inn 4

Machado 1

0
6

Inn 5

Fermin 2

2
0

Inn 6

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
SD

Play-by-play · 569 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  2. T9

    Bailey struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  7. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Patrick Bailey

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  8. T9

    Bailey hit for Knizner

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  9. T9

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  10. T9

    Matos lined out to shortstop.

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

    +0.5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  16. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Luis Matos

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  17. T9

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  18. T9

    Koss struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

    +0.7pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  23. T9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Christian Koss

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  24. T9

    Suarez relieved Miller

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 4·SD 8

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 4·SD 8

  27. B8

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  28. B8

    Arraez flied out to center.

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 4·SD 8

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

8

7

Hits

10

2

Errors

1

17

TB

13

2

HR

0

4

BB

2

11

K

7

14

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    64.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.2%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.9%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    32
    12(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 95
    261
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 95
    155
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 94
    46
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 94
    47
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    264
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs