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FINAL+1STL
CHC

CHC

67-50

2
3
STL

STL

60-59

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
30,540 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

CHC 2 · STL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000200002
STL002000103

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 100
    160
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 98
    163
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 97
    121
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 97
    190
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    123
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 10·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Chicago Cubs, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

RF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Pedro Pages

Pedro Pages

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC67-50
2
3
STL60-59
CHC67-50·STL60-59
CHC

CHC

67-50

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-44000002
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.457
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.123
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-33000010
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-33010001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-33000011
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.278
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
2-44120000
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44112102
SPRINT28.992
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
0-11000000
Team8-3333282138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
6.2433091
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.1000020
Team8.04330111
STL

STL

60-59

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT2872
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-33000001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-33000002
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-33000002
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-33110001
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33011001
SPRINT257
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-33110001
SPRINT27.354
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-33112101
SPRINT25.716
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-33000001
Team4-28283431011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
7.0521171
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
0.2000110
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.1300100
Team9.0821381

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    92 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      51%·91.1 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      27%·80.8 mph·15% whiff
    • FS
      21%·83.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      1%·70.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·91.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.4 mph·50% whiff

STL

  • S. Gray
    92 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      28%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      20%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • CH
      42%·88.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·95.0 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      4%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      54%·89.4 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      31%·96.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      15%·82.5 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 4-3

Jun 23CHCCHC2@STLSTL8
Jun 24CHCCHC7@STLSTL8
Jun 25CHCCHC8@STLSTL0
Jun 26CHCCHC3@STLSTL0
Aug 9CHCCHC0@STLSTL5
Aug 9CHCCHC9@STLSTL1
Aug 10CHCCHC2@STLSTL3today

Season series

Series tied 5-5

Jun 23CHCCHC2@STLSTL8
Jun 24CHCCHC7@STLSTL8
Jun 25CHCCHC8@STLSTL0
Jun 26CHCCHC3@STLSTL0
Jul 4STLSTL3@CHCCHC11
Jul 5STLSTL8@CHCCHC6
Jul 6STLSTL0@CHCCHC11
Aug 9CHCCHC0@STLSTL5
Aug 9CHCCHC9@STLSTL1
Aug 10CHCCHC2@STLSTL3today
Sep 26STLSTL1@CHCCHC12
Sep 27STLSTL3@CHCCHC7
Sep 28STLSTL0@CHCCHC2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 5th Inning

CHCCHC
M. Shaw

M. Shaw

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 4 H

STLSTL
P. Pages

P. Pages

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat CHC 3-2. Shaw's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Win probability

STL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+20pp→ 75% WP

Pag · és homered to left center (407 feet), Saggese scored.

CHCTop 5th Inning · 2-2
+25pp→ 50% WP

Shaw · homered to left center (379 feet), Swanson scored.

STLBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+24pp→ 78% WP

Gorman · singled to right, Walker scored, Gorman to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000200002
STL00200010—3

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · STL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Pag 2

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Shaw 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Gorman 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
STL

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  2. T9

    Shaw grounded into fielder's choice to second, Swanson out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

    +12pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  6. T9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Matt Shaw

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  7. T9

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  8. T9

    Swanson reached on infield single to shortstop, Hoerner to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

    −5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  12. T9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Dansby Swanson

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  13. T9

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  14. T9

    Hoerner singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

    +9pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  16. T9

    Berti caught stealing second, catcher to second.

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  17. T9

    Berti caught stealing second, catcher to second.

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  19. T9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Nico Hoerner

    · ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  20. T9

    Berti ran for Happ

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  21. T9

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  22. T9

    Happ walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

    −7pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 2·STL 3

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

STL

Home

2

Runs

3

8

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

11

TB

7

1

HR

1

3

BB

0

8

K

11

9

LOB

1

Player projections

STL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    45.4%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.7%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.3%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.31 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872