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FINAL+5STL
CHC

CHC

66-49

0
5
STL

STL

59-58

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
33,453 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

CHC 0 · STL 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0000000000
STL010022005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 8·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Chicago Cubs, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Ian Happ

Ian Happ

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC66-49
0
5
STL59-58
CHC66-49·STL59-58
CHC

CHC

66-49

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-44000002
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.123
I. HappI. Happ★LF
2-44020002
SPRINT27.662
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000000
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-44000000
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT28.278
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44010001
Team7-3434070016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
5.0733030
R. BrasierR. BrasierRP
1.0322021
N. PearsonN. PearsonRP
2.0300100
Team8.01355151
STL

STL

59-58

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-33000001
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-33001001
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-33011010
SPRINT26.838
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
3-44130001
SPRINT25.513
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
2-44020001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
3-44132100
SPRINT28.891
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
2-44120000
SPRINT27.354
P. PagesP. Pages★C
2-44121001
SPRINT25.716
G. HampsonG. Hampson★2B
0-33100000
Team13-32325135115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
6.0600130
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.0100020
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0000010
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000000
Team9.0700160

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

13

0

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 4-3

Jun 23CHCCHC2@STLSTL8
Jun 24CHCCHC7@STLSTL8
Jun 25CHCCHC8@STLSTL0
Jun 26CHCCHC3@STLSTL0
Aug 9CHCCHC0@STLSTL5today
Aug 9CHCCHC9@STLSTL1
Aug 10CHCCHC2@STLSTL3

Season series

Series tied 4-4

Jun 23CHCCHC2@STLSTL8
Jun 24CHCCHC7@STLSTL8
Jun 25CHCCHC8@STLSTL0
Jun 26CHCCHC3@STLSTL0
Jul 4STLSTL3@CHCCHC11
Jul 5STLSTL8@CHCCHC6
Jul 6STLSTL0@CHCCHC11
Aug 9CHCCHC0@STLSTL5today
Aug 9CHCCHC9@STLSTL1
Aug 10CHCCHC2@STLSTL3
Sep 26STLSTL1@CHCCHC12
Sep 27STLSTL3@CHCCHC7
Sep 28STLSTL0@CHCCHC2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

CHCCHC
I. Happ

I. Happ

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 7 H

STLSTL
J. Walker

J. Walker

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat CHC 5-0.

Win probability

STL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+12pp→ 60% WP

Winn · doubled to left, Burleson to third.

STLTop 4th Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 61% WP

Kelly · grounded into fielder's choice to third, Happ out at home.

STLBottom 5th Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 71% WP

Pag · és reached on infield single to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0000000000
STL01002200—5

Period scoring

CHC won 0 · STL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Herrera 1

0
2

Inn 6

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
STL

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  2. T9

    Swanson grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  5. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  6. T9

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  7. T9

    Hoerner grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  12. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  13. T9

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  14. T9

    Castro lined out to second.

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  18. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  19. T9

    O'Brien relieved Romero

    ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHC 0·STL 5

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHC 0·STL 5

  22. B8

    · ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  23. B8

    Hampson popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  24. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  29. B8

    Nate Pearson pitches to Garrett Hampson

    · ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

  30. B8

    · ·

    CHC 0·STL 5

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

STL

Home

0

Runs

5

7

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

7

TB

18

0

HR

1

1

BB

1

6

K

5

22

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Victor Scott IISTL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    45.4%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.9%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.3%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 10, 25sim 100
    162
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 98
    163
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 97
    121
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 97
    190
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    123
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs