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FINAL+3CHC
CHC

CHC

87-64

4
1
PIT

PIT

65-87

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
14,714 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 4 · PIT 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC2100100004
PIT1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 16·Final/SeriesCHC win series 5-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Michael Busch

Michael Busch

1B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC87-64
4
1
PIT65-87
CHC87-64·PIT65-87
CHC

CHC

87-64

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
3-44231110
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
3-55030000
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-22101021
SPRINT27.662
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
2-44120012
SPRINT24.53
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-55020001
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44012003
SPRINT29.294
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
2-44020011
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-55000003
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44010002
Team14-373741441513
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HortonC. Horton★SP
5.0311160
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0000020
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000020
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0100000
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000020
Team9.04111120
PIT

PIT

65-87

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-44000002
SPRINT28.483
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT24.85
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000002
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44011003
SPRINT28.483
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000002
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
0-33000002
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-33000000
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
1-33010001
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-33010000
SPRINT27.765
Team4-31311410112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
3.2733361
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.0111110
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.1200110
C. MlodzinskiC. MlodzinskiSP
3.0400050
Team9.014445131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Horton
    79 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      51%·96.0 mph·7% whiff
    • ST
      24%·83.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      6%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·96.4 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      40%·85.3 mph·67% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·77.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      55%·89.4 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      45%·95.6 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    92 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      21%·84.5 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      15%·89.9 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      14%·97.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      2%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Mlodzinski
    55 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      40%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      31%·87.8 mph·55% whiff
    • CU
      18%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.1 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      35%·83.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      12%·94.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

4

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 5-1

Apr 29CHCCHC9@PITPIT0
Apr 30CHCCHC3@PITPIT4
May 1CHCCHC8@PITPIT3
Sep 15CHCCHC4@PITPIT0
Sep 16CHCCHC4@PITPIT1today
Sep 17CHCCHC8@PITPIT4

Season series

CHC lead series 9-3

Apr 29CHCCHC9@PITPIT0
Apr 30CHCCHC3@PITPIT4
May 1CHCCHC8@PITPIT3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC1
Jun 14PITPIT1@CHCCHC2
Jun 15PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Aug 15PITPIT3@CHCCHC2
Aug 16PITPIT1@CHCCHC3
Aug 17PITPIT3@CHCCHC4
Sep 15CHCCHC4@PITPIT0
Sep 16CHCCHC4@PITPIT1today
Sep 17CHCCHC8@PITPIT4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHCCHC
M. Busch

M. Busch

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

C. Horton

C. Horton

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

CHC beat PIT 4-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PIT vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 67% WP

Crow-Armstrong · singled to left, Happ scored, Ballesteros to second.

PITBottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 46% WP

Cruz · tripled to right, Horwitz scored.

PITBottom 3rd Inning · 3-1
+8pp→ 35% WP

Davis · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC2100100004
PIT1000000001

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · PIT won 0

2
1

Inn 1

Crow-Armstrong 1

Cruz 1

1
0

Inn 2

Happ 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
PIT

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  3. B9

    N. Gonzales struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

    −0.5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  7. B9

    Brad Keller pitches to Nick Gonzales

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  8. B9

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  9. B9

    Cruz struck out looking.

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

    −1pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  17. B9

    Brad Keller pitches to Oneil Cruz

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  18. B9

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  19. B9

    Reynolds flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

    −2pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  22. B9

    Brad Keller pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  23. B9

    Keller relieved Thielbar

    ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  26. T9

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  27. T9

    Castro grounded out to first.

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHC 4·PIT 1

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

4

Runs

1

14

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

20

TB

6

1

HR

0

5

BB

1

13

K

12

24

LOB

10

Player projections

PIT vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    43.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.1%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 15, 25sim 97
    164
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 95
    255
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    163
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 95
    161
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 94
    163
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278