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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYM
SEA

SEA

68-56

1
3
NYM

NYM

65-58

Citi Field · Queens, New York
42,978 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

SEA 1 · NYM 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000000011
NYM001000203

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 16·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Seattle Mariners, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo

RF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA68-56
1
3
NYM65-58
SEA68-56·NYM65-58
SEA

SEA

68-56

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000003
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-22020020
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44111102
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-44000001
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT25.920
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-22000010
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-22000011
Team4-30301411412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
6.0611280
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
0.2322000
C. VargasC. VargasRP
0.1100010
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.0000010
Team8.010332100
NYM

NYM

65-58

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-44021000
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-33011001
SPRINT25.513
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-33120010
SPRINT28.278
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010001
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-44010001
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-33000012
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-44000002
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-33220001
SPRINT26.735
Team10-323231030210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
5.1200480
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.2000020
E. DiazE. DiazRP
2.0211021
Team9.04114121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • B. Woo
    101 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      55%·96.7 mph·12% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.5 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      16%·87.5 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      3%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Legumina
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Ferguson
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      31%·89.3 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      19%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      100%·97.3 mph·50% whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    91 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      36%·85.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      26%·94.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      21%·79.6 mph·45% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      2%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      52%·97.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      48%·90.2 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Soto
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      64%·86.2 mph·71% whiff
    • SI
      36%·97.2 mph·20% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

10

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Aug 15SEASEA11@NYMNYM9
Aug 16SEASEA1@NYMNYM3today
Aug 17SEASEA3@NYMNYM7

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 15SEASEA11@NYMNYM9
Aug 16SEASEA1@NYMNYM3today
Aug 17SEASEA3@NYMNYM7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
B. Nimmo

B. Nimmo

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

NYM beat SEA 3-1. Baty's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

NYM vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+21pp→ 51% WP

Baty · singled to right.

SEATop 6th Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 42% WP

Raleigh · walked.

NYMBottom 7th Inning · 0-1
+6pp→ 90% WP

Lindor · singled to left, Baty to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000000011
NYM00100020—3

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · NYM won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Lindor 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Soto 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

SEA
NYM

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  2. T9

    Canzone grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  8. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Dominic Canzone

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  9. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  10. T9

    Polanco flied out to center.

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

    +2pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  16. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Jorge Polanco

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  17. T9

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  18. T9

    Suárez homered to left center (412 feet).

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

    −2pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 0·NYM 3

  21. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    ·

    SEA 1·NYM 3

  22. T9

    ·

    SEA 0·NYM 3

  23. T9

    Naylor lined out to left.

    ·

    SEA 0·NYM 3

    +2pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 0·NYM 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 0·NYM 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 0·NYM 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 0·NYM 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 0·NYM 3

  29. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Josh Naylor

    ·

    SEA 0·NYM 3

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 0·NYM 3

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

1

Runs

3

4

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

7

TB

12

1

HR

0

4

BB

2

12

K

10

14

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

NYM vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 67 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    45.0%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.6%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 98
    163
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 97
    162
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 97
    160
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    190
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    121
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs