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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3NYM
TEX

TEX

79-71

2
5
NYM

NYM

77-73

Citi Field · Queens, New York
40,024 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

TEX 2 · NYM 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
TEX00000020002
NYM00001100035

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 28, 25sim 97
    163
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 97
    123
    1(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    164
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 95
    224
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    26
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 14·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Texas Rangers, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
TEX79-71
2
5
NYM77-73
TEX79-71·NYM77-73
TEX

TEX

79-71

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-33100011
SPRINT27.354
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-44000012
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
2-33022020
SPRINT25.716
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44000001
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
2-55020001
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-44000001
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-22010001
SPRINT2872
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-44010001
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
1-33010000
M. HelmanM. HelmanCF
1-22110000
Team8-3434282048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LatzJ. Latz★RP
4.2211440
C. WinnC. WinnRP
0.2111001
J. WebbJ. WebbRP
1.0100020
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
0.2100000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000010
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0100020
Team9.0754592
NYM

NYM

77-73

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-33110020
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-44101011
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44113110
SPRINT25.29
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44111102
SPRINT28.278
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-44000001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-44000000
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-33010002
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44010001
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
2-33120011
SPRINT25.716
B. BatyB. Baty3B
0-11000001
Team7-3434575259
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. McLeanN. McLean★SP
6.0500270
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.2122000
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
0.1100100
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000000
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0100000
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000110
Team10.0822480

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. Latz
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.5 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.4 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.2 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Webb
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      45%·80.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      35%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      31%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.1 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      46%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Winn
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·96.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    7 pitches·71% CSW
    • SL
      57%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      43%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • L. Curvelo
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.1 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • N. McLean
    92 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      29%·94.9 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      26%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      9%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·99.6 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      6%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      42%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·90.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      17%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      44%·89.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      33%·87.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      22%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      56%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      44%·74.5 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Diaz
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      86%·97.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      14%·89.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

2

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Sep 12TEXTEX8@NYMNYM3
Sep 13TEXTEX3@NYMNYM2
Sep 14TEXTEX2@NYMNYM5today

Season series

TEX wins series 2-1

Sep 12TEXTEX8@NYMNYM3
Sep 13TEXTEX3@NYMNYM2
Sep 14TEXTEX2@NYMNYM5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 7th Inning

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.467 OPS

J. Latz

J. Latz

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

NYMNYM
F. Alvarez

F. Alvarez

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

N. McLean

N. McLean

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYM beat TEX 5-2. Pederson's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Win probability

NYM vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 7th Inning · 2-2
+26pp→ 48% WP

Pederson · singled to right, Helman scored and Smith scored, Langford to third.

NYMBottom 9th Inning · 2-2
+24pp→ 57% WP

Baty · struck out swinging.

NYMTop 10th Inning · 2-2
+18pp→ 70% WP

A. Garc · ía struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
TEX00000020002
NYM00001100035

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · NYM won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Soto 1

0
1

Inn 6

Nimmo 1

2
0

Inn 7

Pederson 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

0
3

Inn 10

Alonso 3

TEX
NYM

Play-by-play · 607 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    TEX 2·NYM 5

  2. B10

    Alonso homered to right (390 feet), Lindor scored and J. Soto scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 5

    +18pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 5

  4. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  5. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  6. B10

    Luis Curvelo pitches to Pete Alonso

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 5

  7. B10

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  8. B10

    J. Soto intentionally walked.

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

    −0.8pp

  9. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  10. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  11. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  13. B10

    Luis Curvelo pitches to Juan Soto

    ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  14. B10

    Curvelo relieved Armstrong

    ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  15. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  16. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  17. T10

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  18. T10

    Tellez fouled out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

    +13pp

  19. T10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  20. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  21. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  22. T10

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Rowdy Tellez

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  23. T10

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  24. T10

    A. García struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

    +18pp

  25. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  26. T10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  27. T10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  28. T10

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  29. T10

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

  30. T10

    Pederson walked.

    · ·

    TEX 2·NYM 2

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

2

Runs

5

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

9

TB

14

0

HR

2

4

BB

5

8

K

9

18

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    43.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.8%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.