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FINAL+1CHC
CHC

CHC

74-55

3
2
LAA

LAA

61-67

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
39,872 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 3 · LAA 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC1010000013
LAA0000101002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/SeriesCHC win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

RF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

3B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC74-55
3
2
LAA61-67
CHC74-55·LAA61-67
CHC

CHC

74-55

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-44111101
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-22001011
SPRINT27.457
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
0-22000001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44000003
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-33000010
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44111102
SPRINT29.294
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000011
M. BuschM. Busch1B
1-22010001
Team5-31313532410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AssadJ. Assad★SP
6.0211141
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0111031
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000000
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0000020
Team9.0322192
LAA

LAA

61-67

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT27.148
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-33000000
SPRINT25.920
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-33000011
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44000001
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
2-44222201
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.867
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-33000002
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
0-33000002
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000000
Team3-2929232219
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. AndersonT. Anderson★SP
5.0322251
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
0.2000220
SPRINT27.148
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
0.1000010
R. StephensonR. StephensonRP
1.0000000
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0100020
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0111001
Team9.05334102

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

3

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 3-0

Aug 23CHCCHC3@LAALAA2today
Aug 24CHCCHC12@LAALAA1
Aug 24CHCCHC4@LAALAA3

Season series

CHC lead series 1-0

Aug 23CHCCHC3@LAALAA2today
Aug 24CHCCHC12@LAALAA1
Aug 24CHCCHC4@LAALAA3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 36pp · Top 9th Inning

CHCCHC
K. Tucker

K. Tucker

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Assad

J. Assad

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

LAALAA
Y. Moncada

Y. Moncada

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

T. Anderson

T. Anderson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat LAA 3-2. Crow-Armstrong's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 5th Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 38% WP

Moncada · homered to right center (378 feet).

LAABottom 7th Inning · 2-2
+22pp→ 54% WP

Moncada · homered to right (399 feet).

CHCTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+36pp→ 80% WP

Crow-Armstrong · homered to right center (396 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC1010000013
LAA0000101002

Period scoring

CHC won 3 · LAA won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Tucker 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Suzuki 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Moncada 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Moncada 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Crow-Armstrong 1

CHC
LAA

Play-by-play · 513 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  3. B9

    Moncada struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  8. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Yoan Moncada

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  9. B9

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  10. B9

    Ward grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

    −8pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  12. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Taylor Ward

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  13. B9

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  14. B9

    Trout struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

    −9pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  20. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Mike Trout

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  21. B9

    Palencia relieved Keller

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  24. T9

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  25. T9

    Shaw flied out to center.

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

  30. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Matt Shaw

    ·

    CHC 3·LAA 2

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

3

Runs

2

5

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

12

TB

9

2

HR

2

4

BB

1

10

K

9

13

LOB

4

Player projections

LAA vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    45.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.0%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.1%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 98
    160
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 98
    162
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 98
    133
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 98
    121
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 96
    163
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    123
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs