HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1CHC
TB

TB

73-76

3
4
CHC

CHC

85-64

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
37,186 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TB

TB

league avg

CHC

CHC

.720

OPS

.717

.722

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.330

4.53

Runs / G

4.50

4.57

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.23

1.24

WHIP

1.31

1.25

8.0

K / 9

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

TB 3 · CHC 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB2010000003
CHC100001204

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 14·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Tampa Bay Rays, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1W. CastroCHC+58.7pp
  2. 2E. UcetaTB−56.4pp
  3. 3N. HoernerCHC+43.6pp

TB · top performer

TB
Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

3B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Ian Happ

Ian Happ

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazDH
.2914111111
J. Caminero3B
.2624121111
B. Lowe2B
.2594110002
C. Morel1B
.2273010002
N. FortesC
.1973010011
J. LoweLF
.2334011001
E. PereiraRF
.1544010001
C. WilliamsSS
.1643000002
B. Seymour1B
.2204010001
- J. MangumLF
.2981000000
- C. SimpsonLF
.2931000001
Team353932313

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. HouserSP
6.07221290
E. UcetaRP
1.03220220
G. ActonRP
1.00002021
Team8.0104434131

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. Busch1B
.2564110001
N. Hoerner2B
.2994023000
I. HappLF
.2424121101
M. BallesterosDH
.3213020010
D. SwansonSS
.2464010001
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF
.2463000010
W. Castro2B
.1883110010
R. McGuireC
.2174000001
M. ShawRF
.2233110000
- K. AlcantaraDH
.1670000000
Team324104134

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. ImanagaSP
5.07330991
J. AssadSP
2.12002146
C. ThielbarRP
0.2000005
A. KittredgeRP
1.00001318
Team9.0933313160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • A. Houser
    90 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      39%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·90.5 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      18%·86.5 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      8%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Acton
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      81%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.2 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      30%·88.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.7 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    91 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      37%·91.1 mph·15% whiff
    • ST
      32%·81.3 mph·39% whiff
    • FS
      20%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·82.3 mph·75% whiff
  • J. Assad
    46 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      41%·92.8 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      9%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      2%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    18 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      56%·96.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      44%·90.9 mph·75% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      60%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·76.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Sep 12TBTB4@CHCCHC6
Sep 13TBTB5@CHCCHC4
Sep 14TBTB3@CHCCHC4today

Season series

CHC win series 2-1

Sep 12TBTB4@CHCCHC6
Sep 13TBTB5@CHCCHC4
Sep 14TBTB3@CHCCHC4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 43pp · Bottom 7th Inning

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
I. Happ

I. Happ

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

CHC beat TB 4-3. Hoerner's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (43pp).

Win probability

CHC vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 5th Inning · 3-1
+17pp→ 69% WP

Caminero · grounded out to third.

CHCBottom 7th Inning · 3-2
+25pp→ 47% WP

Castro · singled to right.

CHCBottom 7th Inning · 3-4
+43pp→ 81% WP

Hoerner · doubled to left, Shaw scored and Castro scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB2010000003
CHC10000120—4

Period scoring

TB won 2 · CHC won 2

2
1

Inn 1

Caminero 1

Hoerner 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Happ 1

0
2

Inn 7

Hoerner 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TB
CHC

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  2. T9

    Caminero struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

    +8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  8. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Junior Caminero

    · ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  9. T9

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  10. T9

    Díaz walked.

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

    −5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  18. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Yandy Diaz

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  19. T9

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  20. T9

    B. Seymour struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

    +4pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  24. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Bob Seymour

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  25. T9

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  26. T9

    Simpson struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

    +5pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

  30. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Chandler Simpson

    ·

    TB 3·CHC 4

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

3

Runs

4

9

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

16

TB

15

2

HR

1

3

BB

3

13

K

4

15

LOB

20

Player projections

CHC vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Drew RasmussenTB
    6.0± 4.2low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.3± 3.7low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.2± 2.1low

Hits

  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    2.9± 3.1high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Seiya SuzukiCHC
    2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Seiya SuzukiCHC
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Edward CabreraCHC
    3.2± 2.6low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    3.2± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    59.0%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.5%

    P(CHC win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.5%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.