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FINAL+1WSH
PIT

PIT

64-84

5
6
WSH

WSH

61-86

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
18,021 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

PIT 5 · WSH 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0010200025
WSH000002406

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Nick Yorke

Nick Yorke

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Brady House

Brady House

3B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT64-84
5
6
WSH61-86
PIT64-84·WSH61-86
PIT

PIT

64-84

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-55220001
SPRINT28.483
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-44122101
SPRINT24.85
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-44011002
SPRINT27.969
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-44000000
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-33010001
C. DevanneyC. Devanney★SS
0-44000003
J. BaeJ. Bae★CF
0-22000000
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000000
N. YorkeN. Yorke3B
1-11111000
SPRINT27.662
A. CanarioA. CanarioLF
0-11000011
J. BartJ. BartC
1-11011000
Team10-36365105119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellerM. Keller★SP
5.1422141
E. SiskE. SiskRP
0.2000110
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
0.2344111
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
1.1100010
Team8.0866372
WSH

WSH

61-86

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44010000
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-44220002
SPRINT27.457
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44012000
SPRINT25.18
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-22000021
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000001
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-22000011
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44112100
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-33111101
SPRINT2872
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
2-33120001
J. AlfaroJ. AlfaroC
0-11000000
Team8-3131685237
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. LordB. Lord★RP
6.0733041
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0000020
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000020
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0322110
Team9.01055191

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • M. Keller
    62 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.1 mph·21% whiff
    • ST
      23%·81.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      16%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·76.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·90.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      19%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Moreta
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·83.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sisk
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • ST
      38%·79.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      23%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      15%·76.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·88.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·84.4 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • B. Lord
    88 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      34%·94.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·85.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • UN
      1%·76.9 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • SL
      73%·88.2 mph·71% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.9 mph·— whiff
  • P. Poulin
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      70%·90.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      30%·80.1 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

5

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Sep 12PITPIT5@WSHWSH6today
Sep 13PITPIT5@WSHWSH1
Sep 14PITPIT3@WSHWSH4

Season series

PIT leads series 3-2

Apr 14WSHWSH3@PITPIT10
Apr 15WSHWSH3@PITPIT0
Apr 16WSHWSH1@PITPIT6
Apr 17WSHWSH0@PITPIT1
Sep 12PITPIT5@WSHWSH6today
Sep 13PITPIT5@WSHWSH1
Sep 14PITPIT3@WSHWSH4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 7th Inning

PITPIT
N. Yorke

N. Yorke

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
B. House

B. House

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

WSH beat PIT 6-5. Crews's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Win probability

WSH vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+18pp→ 83% WP

Horwitz · homered to right (375 feet), Triolo scored.

PITBottom 6th Inning · 3-1
+15pp→ 74% WP

Bell · grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Abrams out at home.

WSHBottom 7th Inning · 3-4
+36pp→ 79% WP

Crews · homered to center (407 feet), Young scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0010200025
WSH00000240—6

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · WSH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Reynolds 1

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Horwitz 2

0
2

Inn 6

House 1

0
4

Inn 7

Crews 2

0
0

Inn 8

2

Inn 9

Yorke 1

PIT
WSH

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

  2. T9

    Triolo flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

    +11pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

  4. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Jared Triolo

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

  5. T9

    ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

  6. T9

    Bart singled to left, Yorke scored, Bart to second, Canario thrown out at home.

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

    +3pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

  8. T9

    Canario to second, Yorke to third on wild pitch by Ferrer.

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

  9. T9

    Canario to second on wild pitch by Ferrer, Yorke to third on wild pitch by Ferrer.

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  11. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Joey Bart

    · ·

    PIT 5·WSH 6

  12. T9

    Bart hit for Davis

    ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  13. T9

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  14. T9

    Canario walked, Yorke to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

    −7pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  23. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Alexander Canario

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  24. T9

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  25. T9

    Devanney struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

    +6pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

  30. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Cam Devanney

    · ·

    PIT 4·WSH 6

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

5

Runs

6

10

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

15

TB

16

1

HR

2

1

BB

3

9

K

7

12

LOB

8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    156
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    233
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 93
    1511
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 93
    159
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 93
    235
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 92
    305
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

WSH vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    48.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.7%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.1%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.