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FINAL+3ATL
ATL

ATL

68-83

6
3
WSH

WSH

62-89

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
15,584 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 6 · WSH 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0005000106
WSH0200000103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 16·Final/SeriesATL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

RF

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL68-83
6
3
WSH62-89
ATL68-83·WSH62-89
ATL

ATL

68-83

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44112110
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-55121101
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
3-44030010
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-55000001
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000010
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-44220001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
3-44130000
SPRINT27.148
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-44001001
V. BrujanV. Brujan★SS
2-44122001
Team13-38386136235
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SuarezJ. Suarez★RP
7.0622290
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0211010
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000120
Team9.08333120
WSH

WSH

62-89

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44011002
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-55000004
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
1-33010010
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44120000
SPRINT29.395
J. AlfaroJ. Alfaro★C
1-44011001
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000001
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-33110011
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-33110001
SPRINT2872
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33011001
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell IIICF
0-11000001
Team8-34343830312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
6.0855252
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0100100
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0311000
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
1.0100000
Team9.01366352

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • J. Suarez
    99 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.7 mph·41% whiff
    • CH
      28%·83.1 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      20%·80.8 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.7 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      4%·76.1 mph·75% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • CU
      84%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      68%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      32%·86.9 mph·50% whiff

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    102 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·92.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      23%·80.0 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      2%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·89.5 mph·— whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      33%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·79.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·79.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      29%·78.8 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

8

6

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 4-2

May 20ATLATL3@WSHWSH5
May 21ATLATL0@WSHWSH0
May 22ATLATL7@WSHWSH8
Sep 15ATLATL11@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL6@WSHWSH3today
Sep 16ATLATL5@WSHWSH0
Sep 17ATLATL9@WSHWSH4

Season series

ATL leads series 5-3

May 12WSHWSH3@ATLATL4
May 13WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 14WSHWSH5@ATLATL4
May 15WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 20ATLATL3@WSHWSH5
May 21ATLATL0@WSHWSH0
May 22ATLATL7@WSHWSH8
Sep 15ATLATL11@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL6@WSHWSH3today
Sep 16ATLATL5@WSHWSH0
Sep 17ATLATL9@WSHWSH4
Sep 22WSHWSH5@ATLATL11
Sep 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL3
Sep 24WSHWSH4@ATLATL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 4th Inning

ATLATL
R. Acuna Jr.

R. Acuna Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.550 OPS

J. Suarez

J. Suarez

RP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 9 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat WSH 6-3. Profar's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 67% WP

Young · singled to right, Crews scored, House to third.

WSHTop 3rd Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 72% WP

Olson · grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Profar out at second.

ATLTop 4th Inning · 4-2
+21pp→ 74% WP

Profar · homered to right (372 feet), Bruján scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0005000106
WSH0200000103

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Young 1

0
0

Inn 3

5
0

Inn 4

Profar 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Bruj 1

Alfaro 1

0
0

Inn 9

ATL
WSH

Play-by-play · 574 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  3. B9

    Wood struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  8. B9

    Nuñez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  9. B9

    Nuñez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  11. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to James Wood

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  12. B9

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  13. B9

    Abrams flied out to center.

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

    −3pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  17. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  18. B9

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  19. B9

    Hassell III struck out looking.

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

    −4pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  24. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Robert Hassell III

    · ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  25. B9

    Hassell III hit for Young

    ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  26. B9

    ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  27. B9

    Nuñez walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

    +5pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 6·WSH 3

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

6

Runs

3

13

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

21

TB

10

2

HR

0

3

BB

3

5

K

12

17

LOB

15

Player projections

WSH vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.4± 3.2high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.4± 4.0low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    49.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.5%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.4%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 14, 25sim 97
    233
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 96
    235
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    235
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 94
    155
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 92
    218
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 92
    1511
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs