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FINAL+1WSH
PIT

PIT

65-85

3
4
WSH

WSH

62-87

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
20,208 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

PIT 3 · WSH 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT3000000003
WSH030000014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 16, 25sim 97
    156
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    235
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    155
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 96
    235
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 93
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 29, 25sim 93
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 14·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT65-85
3
4
WSH62-87
PIT65-85·WSH62-87
PIT

PIT

65-85

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-33110021
SPRINT28.483
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-33110020
SPRINT24.85
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-55000002
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-44000001
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44112001
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-33020010
SPRINT28.483
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-22000011
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-44000001
J. BaeJ. Bae★CF
0-33000012
Team5-3131352079
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
4.1533160
E. SiskE. SiskRP
0.2000020
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0100110
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
2.0110110
Team8.07433100
WSH

WSH

62-87

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000004
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-33100012
SPRINT27.457
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-44000001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-22120020
SPRINT29.395
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
2-44120000
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
0-44000002
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
2-33121001
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-22001000
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33011000
SPRINT29.496
Team7-29294730310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
5.0333420
M. ThompsonM. ThompsonRP
1.0000110
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0000120
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0100010
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0100130
Team9.0533790

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • M. Burrows
    61 pitches·41% CSW
    • CH
      36%·88.5 mph·59% whiff
    • FF
      30%·96.2 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    26 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      92%·92.3 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      47%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      37%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.6 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    8 pitches·75% CSW
    • ST
      63%·80.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      38%·91.8 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    67 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      31%·96.5 mph·10% whiff
    • KC
      24%·87.3 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      10%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    22 pitches·41% CSW
    • SL
      64%·88.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      36%·97.0 mph·20% whiff
  • M. Thompson
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      41%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.1 mph·— whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      59%·93.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      24%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      57%·94.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      7%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·85.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Sep 12PITPIT5@WSHWSH6
Sep 13PITPIT5@WSHWSH1
Sep 14PITPIT3@WSHWSH4today

Season series

PIT wins series 4-3

Apr 14WSHWSH3@PITPIT10
Apr 15WSHWSH3@PITPIT0
Apr 16WSHWSH1@PITPIT6
Apr 17WSHWSH0@PITPIT1
Sep 12PITPIT5@WSHWSH6
Sep 13PITPIT5@WSHWSH1
Sep 14PITPIT3@WSHWSH4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 26pp · Bottom 8th Inning

PITPIT
O. Cruz

O. Cruz

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

WSH beat PIT 4-3. Lile's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+18pp→ 67% WP

N. Gonzales · tripled to right, Triolo scored and Horwitz scored.

WSHBottom 8th Inning · 3-4
+26pp→ 89% WP

Lile · doubled to center, Wood scored on fielding error by center fielder Cruz, Lile to third.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 3-4
+18pp→ 100% WP

Reynolds · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT3000000003
WSH03000001—4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

3

Runs

4

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

8

TB

10

0

HR

0

7

BB

3

9

K

10

17

LOB

11

Win probability

WSH vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · WSH won 2

3
0

Inn 1

Gonzales 2

0
3

Inn 2

DeJong 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Lile 1

0

Inn 9

PIT
WSH

Play-by-play · 519 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  2. T9

    Reynolds struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

    +18pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  7. T9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  8. T9

    Peguero ran for Horwitz

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  9. T9

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  10. T9

    Horwitz singled to center, Triolo to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

    −10pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  15. T9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Spencer Horwitz

    · ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  16. T9

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  17. T9

    Triolo walked.

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

    −5pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  24. T9

    Clayton Beeter pitches to Jared Triolo

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  25. T9

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  26. T9

    Bae struck out looking.

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

    +5pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 3·WSH 4

Player projections

WSH vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    48.7%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.3%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 9 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483