HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5ATL
ATL

ATL

70-83

9
4
WSH

WSH

62-91

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
14,420 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

ATL

league avg

WSH

WSH

.744

OPS

.717

.745

.320

OBP

.319

.323

5.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.44

3.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.66

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 9 · WSH 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0000041139
WSH0000300014

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesATL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 9–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1D. BaldwinATL+33.4pp
  2. 2C. BeeterWSH−24.7pp
  3. 3H. KimATL+23.9pp

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.

Luis Garcia Jr.

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarLF
.2575000001
M. Olson1B
.2815231100
R. Acuna Jr.RF
.2845230001
D. BaldwinC
.2685221000
O. Albies2B
.2362101021
H. KimSS
.2574222010
M. Harris IICF
.2425010003
M. OzunaDH
.2335033000
N. Alvarez Jr.SS
.2364021002
Team409169138

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
H. WaldrepSP
5.05330883
D. DoddRP
0.12000013
H. StrattonRP
0.2000014
P. JohnsonRP
0.2100006
D. LeeRP
1.10000224
D. DunningRP
1.02110121
Team9.01044012151

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodRF
.2565021001
C. AbramsSS
.2625010002
J. BellDH
.2314010002
D. LileLF
.2874000002
L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2584120002
D. CrewsRF
.2134221000
R. AdamsC
.1923000002
R. Hassell IIICF
.2334111001
B. House3B
.2374011000
Team3741040012

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. LordRP
5.162214102
C. BeeterRP
0.22222121
S. LaoRP
2.03220236
S. OgasawaraRP
1.05330118
Team9.0169938177

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • H. Waldrep
    83 pitches·28% CSW
    • FS
      35%·87.2 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·83.6 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      12%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      1%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      46%·94.6 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dunning
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      43%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      29%·85.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      24%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      5%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      62%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      31%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.4 mph·— whiff
  • P. Johnson
    6 pitches·0% CSW
    • CU
      83%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.2 mph·— whiff
  • H. Stratton
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·93.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.5 mph·100% whiff

WSH

  • B. Lord
    102 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.8 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.7 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.1 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.3 mph·14% whiff
  • S. Lao
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      47%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      39%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·87.7 mph·80% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      33%·90.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      28%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·80.8 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      17%·71.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

10

9

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 4-2

May 20ATLATL3@WSHWSH5
May 21ATLATL0@WSHWSH0
May 22ATLATL7@WSHWSH8
Sep 15ATLATL11@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL6@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL5@WSHWSH0
Sep 17ATLATL9@WSHWSH4today

Season series

ATL leads series 7-3

May 12WSHWSH3@ATLATL4
May 13WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 14WSHWSH5@ATLATL4
May 15WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 20ATLATL3@WSHWSH5
May 21ATLATL0@WSHWSH0
May 22ATLATL7@WSHWSH8
Sep 15ATLATL11@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL6@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL5@WSHWSH0
Sep 17ATLATL9@WSHWSH4today
Sep 22WSHWSH5@ATLATL11
Sep 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL3
Sep 24WSHWSH4@ATLATL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 6th Inning

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

H. Waldrep

H. Waldrep

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 5 H

WSHWSH
L. Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat WSH 9-4. Ozuna's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 6th Inning · 3-3
+24pp→ 50% WP

Ozuna · singled to right, Albies scored and Baldwin scored, Kim to second.

ATLBottom 6th Inning · 4-3
+12pp→ 66% WP

Crews · grounded into fielder's choice to third, García Jr. to second, Lile out at home.

ATLTop 7th Inning · 5-3
+12pp→ 83% WP

Olson · homered to right center (422 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0000041139
WSH0000300014

Period scoring

ATL won 4 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Crews 1

4
0

Inn 6

Ozuna 2

1
0

Inn 7

Olson 1

1
0

Inn 8

Ozuna 1

3
1

Inn 9

Kim 2

House 1

ATL
WSH

Play-by-play · 624 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  3. B9

    Abrams grounded out to second.

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

    −0.5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  8. B9

    Dane Dunning pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  9. B9

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  10. B9

    Wood struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

    −1pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  15. B9

    Dane Dunning pitches to James Wood

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  16. B9

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  17. B9

    House singled to right, Crews scored, Hassell III to second.

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

    +1pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

  20. B9

    Dane Dunning pitches to Brady House

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 4

  21. B9

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

  22. B9

    Hassell III grounded into fielder's choice to second, Adams out at second, Crews to third.

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

    −1pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

  27. B9

    Dane Dunning pitches to Robert Hassell III

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

  28. B9

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

  29. B9

    Adams hit by pitch.

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

    +1pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 9·WSH 3

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

9

Runs

4

16

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

21

TB

14

1

HR

0

3

BB

0

8

K

12

17

LOB

17

Player projections

WSH vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.4± 2.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 3.5medium
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 2.7low

Hits

  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.6± 2.6low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.4± 1.7low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    2.3± 1.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.4%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.6%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.6%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.